Pisa vs Lecce: match statistics

Lecce appears to be the favorite: they sit 17th versus Pisa’s 20th. Lecce have 7 wins this season versus the hosts’ 2 and have conceded 46 goals versus 61, giving the visitors an edge in defensive stability. Pisa have lost their last 5 matches (form 'lllll'), conceding 12 goals in those five and scoring only 1, while Lecce’s last 5 read 0-2-3 with 7 conceded and 1 scored; over the last five matches Pisa average 0 points versus 0.4 points per match for Lecce. In chance creation Pisa at home average 10.18 shots and 2.94 on target with xG 1.16, but conversion is only 5% and FTS 65%, whereas Lecce away average 9 shots and 1.94 on target with xG 0.98, conversion 7% and FTS 53% — the visitors convert their chances more efficiently. Defensively both teams concede a lot (Pisa 1.24 goals conceded at home per match vs Lecce 1.35 away), but xG against shows 1.39 for Pisa versus 1.58 for Lecce and the lower total goals conceded this season (46 vs 61) slightly favors the visitors. Therefore I assess probabilities as 50% for Lecce, 30% draw and 20% for Pisa.

Both teams have a low seasonal BTTS rate: Pisa 41% vs Lecce 29%, and in the last 5 matches for both teams BTTS occurred in only 20% of cases. They are offensively weak — goals per match average 0.71 for Pisa and 0.59 for Lecce, with shot conversion rates of just 6% and 7%. Pisa concedes a lot (61 conceded, 1.35 per match and 2.4 in the last 5), and Lecce concedes 46 (1.35 per match, 1.4 in the last 5), which gives a chance for one side to score but not for regular both-teams-to-score outcomes. xG shows moderate differences: attacking xG 1.19 for Pisa vs 0.98 for Lecce, and xG against 1.30 vs 1.58, suggesting rather one-sided results than both teams scoring. On this basis I assign a 30% probability to BTTS - Yes and 70% to No, selecting No as the most likely scenario.

I estimate expected goals at 1.05 for Pisa and 0.95 for Lecce (total 2.00), calculated as the average between seasonal scoring averages (Pisa 0.71, Lecce 0.59) and opponents’ defensive averages (each 1.35). xG shows more chances (Pisa xG_for 1.19, Lecce xG_for 0.98), but actual goals scored are lower (0.71 and 0.59) and shot conversion rates are low (6% and 7%), so I adjust the forecast down from raw xG. Seasonal percentages indicate a strong chance of over 1.5 goals: Pisa over1.5 in 71% of matches, Lecce in 53% — average about 62%, whereas Over 2.5 is less likely (Pisa 47%, Lecce 24%, average ~36%). Pisa’s last 5 matches conceded 12 goals (2.4 per game) versus Lecce’s 7 conceded (1.4), which increases volatility but does not offset the low finishing rates. Therefore I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal: I assess probability of over1.5 at ~68% and over 2.5 at about 37%.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Pisa were level at the break in 59% of matches and Lecce in 41%, with first-half goal averages of 0.88 (Pisa) versus 0.82 (Lecce), indicating low intensity in the opening 45 minutes. For the full match both teams show poor offensive efficiency — season full-game goal averages of 0.71 (Pisa) and 0.59 (Lecce) with xG of 1.19 vs 0.98 and shot conversion rates of 6% vs 7% — therefore a draw result is justified. The second half is more active and decisive: Pisa average 1.18 goals after the break and have 82% of games with at least one goal in the second half, yet the team scores only 0.24 goals in the second half on average and concedes 0.94, with as many as 11 conceded goals occurring in minutes 61–75, which increases the risk of a turnaround or losing a lead. Lecce additionally average only 1.94 shots on target and have a low BTTS rate (29%), so the most consistent scenario with the data is draw at Half-Time and draw at Full-Time (X/X).