Plymouth Parkway vs Havant & Waterlooville: match statistics

Plymouth holds the edge in chance creation at home: on average 8.83 shots per match, including 5.33 on target, xG 1.26 and 1.42 goals per match. Havant away averages 7.5 shots (3.67 on target) with xG 0.99 and 1.58 goals per match — the visitors can score but generate fewer high-quality chances. In the last 5 matches Plymouth scored 9 and conceded 7 (record 3-1-1), while Havant scored 13 and conceded only 3 (also 3-1-1), indicating a better scoring run and improved defense for the visitors. Seasonally Havant have a goal record of 74-62 (+12) versus Plymouth 53-73 (-20), but Havant suffer 47% losses away, whereas Plymouth win 53% at home, which limits the visitors’ advantage. Considering the higher xG and volume of chances for the home side, their 55% possession (vs 43% for the visitors) and superior shot conversion (17% vs 7%), I give a slight edge to Plymouth and back them to win.

Both teams have season BTTS rates near the 50% mark: Plymouth Parkway 55% and Havant & Waterlooville 58%, against a league rate of 60%, which favors a BTTS - Yes scenario. This season Plymouth scores 2.2 and concedes 1.5 on average, while Havant scores 1.58 and concedes 1.68; in raw numbers they have 53 and 74 goals scored and 73 and 62 conceded, indicating a propensity for goal exchanges. Plymouth creates more chances: xG 1.45 versus Havant 0.99, 10.83 shots versus 7.5 and 4.67 on target versus 3.67, with conversion 18% vs 7%, so Plymouth has greater ability to convert chances, while Havant still has 13 goals in the last 5 matches (2.6 avg). Additionally, matches over 2.5 goals occur in 70% of Plymouth games and 68% of Havant games, and clean sheets only in 30% and 26% of cases, which strengthens the BTTS signal. Although Havant have conceded only 0.6 goals on average in the last 5 matches (3 conceded), considering the season BTTS of 55% and 58%, the high share of >2.5 matches (70% and 68%) and low clean sheet frequency, I assign a 72% probability to Both Teams To Score and recommend the pick: Yes.

Expected xG for this fixture is about 1.45 for Plymouth (xG_for 1.45 vs xG_against opponents 1.44) and 1.10 for Havant (xG_for 0.99 vs xG_against 1.21), totaling ~2.55 goals. Season metrics indicate a strong tendency toward goals: Over 1.5 occurred in 80% of Plymouth’s matches and 89% of Havant’s (avg 84.5%), while Over 2.5 appears in 70% and 68% of matches respectively (avg 69%). In the last 5 matches Havant scored 13 goals (2.6 avg) and conceded 3 (0.6), Plymouth have 9 scored (1.8) and 7 conceded (1.4), confirming both sides’ offensive form. Additionally BTTS is 55% for Plymouth and 58% for Havant, and the league averages 3.14 goals per game — all factors that increase the likelihood of at least two goals. On this basis I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (≈80% probability), while Over 2.5 is assessed as moderate at ~60%.

First-half statistics favor Havant — the visitors led at the break in 47% of matches, while Plymouth led in 20%, and first-half goals are 34 (Havant) versus 26 (Plymouth), with first-half points averages of 1.63 versus 1.10. Despite this, Plymouth is markedly stronger after the break: the home side scores on average 1.6 goals in the second half at home and their home matches average 2.4 second-half goals, with at least one goal after the break in 95% of home games. Havant score only 0.58 goals on average after the break and concede 0.89, and the visitors’ shot conversion rate is 7% versus 18% for the hosts, which increases the chance of a Plymouth turnaround in the second half. Additionally xG is 1.45 for Plymouth versus 0.99 for Havant, which, combined with superior finishing, supports a comeback by the hosts after halftime. On this basis I select HT/FT 2/1 (Havant leading at half-time, Plymouth winning) as the strongest signal — in my forecast it has a 19% probability; next are 2/2 (18%) and X/1 (17%) as significant alternatives.