Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce vs Stargard Szczeciński: match statistics

Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce shows clearly better recent form: in the last 5 matches they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, scored 9 goals (1.8 per game) and average 2 points per match, while Stargard over the same period has 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses, 8 goals and 0.8 points per match. Stargard, however, is more efficient in the opponent’s box — away they score 1.4 goals on average and have a conversion rate of about 12%, whereas Pogoń at home records only 0.5 goals per game with circa 3% conversion; additionally Pogoń fail to score in 64% of home matches, while Stargard fail to score in only 27% of away games. Defensively the hosts look more solid at home: Pogoń concede 1.21 goals per home match, the visitors concede 1.53 on the road, with the hosts keeping 43% clean sheets at home versus 20% for Stargard. xG metrics show the visitors create slightly more chances (xG for 1.4 vs 1.2 for the hosts at home), but Pogoń’s main issue is finishing — xG 1.2 against an actual 0.5 goals indicates low efficiency. Considering Pogoń’s advantage in form (PPG 2 vs 0.8) and better home defence, despite the visitors’ dangerous conversion, I predict a home win, hence the probability distribution: 45% home, 28% draw, 27% away.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 60% (Pogoń 60% and Stargard 60%), which is clearly above the league average of 52% and strongly supports the "both teams to score" market. Goal-scoring stats confirm this direction: Pogoń averages 1.8 goals, with 29 scored and 42 conceded this season, while Stargard averages 1.4 goals, with 48 scored and 49 conceded — both sides regularly score and concede. Chance creation is comparable (xG 1.39 for Pogoń vs 1.40 for Stargard), with 4.82 vs 4.33 shots on target and 10.82 vs 11.5 total shots, and conversion rates of 16% vs 12%, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Against this, Pogoń have had BTTS in only 40% of their last 5 matches; however both teams have low clean sheet rates — 20% each — which still supports a both-teams-to-score scenario. In summary, given the 60%/60% seasonal BTTS, low 20% clean sheets and the cited xG and shot metrics, I recommend BTTS - Yes with a probability of 68% vs No 32%.

Seasonal statistics point to high goal potential: the home side have 93% of matches over 1.5 goals, the away side 80%, and matches over 2.5 goals occur in 73% for hosts and 53% for visitors. Based on xG: the home attack xG is 1.39 and the away defense xG is 1.41 (implied expected goals for the home side ≈1.40), while the away xG is 1.40 and the home defense xG is 1.13, yielding an expected away goal ≈1.27; the combined expected total ≈2.67 goals. Both teams scored in 60% of matches; the home team have 29 goals for and 42 against this season, the visitors 48 for and 49 against, confirming a tendency for goal exchange. In the last 5 matches the home side scored 9 goals (1.8 avg) and the away side 8 goals (1.6 avg), while the visitors conceded 10 goals (2.0 avg), suggesting an open game and a high likely final score. For these reasons the safest line is Over 1.5 (I pick Over 1.5) — it has the strongest data support; Over 2.5 looks promising, while Over 3.5 is less likely.

The strongest signal is a Half-Time draw and a home win (X/1). In the last 5 matches Pogoń won 3 of 5 (60%) versus Stargard’s 1 of 5 (20%), and the home side has a HTPPG form of 1.25 versus the visitors’ 1.0, suggesting Pogoń perform better in the second half. A draw at the break is likely — the home team had a half-time draw in 50% of their last 5 matches, the visitors in 40% — while seasonally the first half contains at least one goal in 93% of the home team’s matches and 80% of the visitors’. xG are nearly identical (1.39 vs 1.40), but the home side’s higher shot conversion (16% vs 12%) increases Pogoń’s chances of turning the result around after the break. Additionally, both teams register BTTS in 60% of matches, so the Half-Time draw followed by a home win is the signal most consistent with the data.