Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz: match statistics

Zawisza Bydgoszcz is the clear favorite based on season-long data: they have 16 wins versus Pogoń’s 5 and have scored 49 goals against the hosts’ 20. In the last 5 matches the visitors have won 4 and drawn 1 (avg. 2.6 points per game), while Pogoń have won only 1 and lost 4 (avg. 0.6 points per game), indicating a large form gap. Defensively Zawisza concedes 0.91 goals on the road, while Pogoń concedes 1.45 at home; total goals conceded are 16 for the visitors versus 36 for the hosts, and Pogoń’s home goal difference is -11 compared to the visitors’ +4 on the road. Despite similar xG (Zawisza 1.23 vs Pogoń 1.20), the visitors convert chances more efficiently — Zawisza average 1.27 goals away with a 10% conversion rate, while Pogoń manage only 0.45 goals at home with a 3% conversion and a 64% home shutout rate. Given the advantage in efficiency, form and goal differential, I tip a Zawisza victory.

I back BTTS - No — i.e., at least one team will not score; I estimate probability 70% vs 30% for Yes. Pogoń at home records 62% clean sheets this season and concedes only 0.46 goals per game, with a season BTTS rate of 38%, indicating Pogoń’s home matches rarely finish Goal/Goal. Zawisza has a season BTTS of 45% and averages 1.27 goals away, but in the last 5 matches has conceded only 1 goal (0.2 per game), showing current defensive solidity from the visitors. Admittedly Pogoń has high home xG 2.04 and a season scoring average of 2.69 goals, yet in the last 5 games they averaged only 1.2 goals and conceded 13 goals (2.6 per game), so signals are mixed; given Pogoń’s season 62% clean sheets and Zawisza’s low recent goals conceded, the No Goal scenario looks stronger.

The modelled xG estimate for this match is 1.76 for Pogoń and 1.14 for Zawisza (total 2.90); I calculated this as the average of home attack xG 2.04 and away defense xG 1.47, and away attack xG 1.23 and home defense xG 1.06. This translates into a high probability of Over 1.5 goals — I estimate Over 1.5 at 79% (Under 21%), which is consistent with Pogoń’s seasonal Over1.5 rate of 92% and Zawisza’s 55%. I rate Over 2.5 at 56% (Under 44%), aligning with seasonal Over2.5 of 54% for the home side and 36% for the visitors, while Over 3.5 is 33% (Under 67%) due to seasonal Over3.5 of 38%/18% for home/away and an expected total <3.5. Additionally, the home team averages 17.58 shots and 7.5 on target per match versus 10.0/4.0 for the visitors, and in the last 5 matches Pogoń conceded 13 goals and scored 6, whereas Zawisza scored 6 and conceded 1, which increases the likelihood of goals — therefore I recommend backing Over 1.5.

The primary premise is Pogoń’s dominance in the first half: the hosts led at the break in 10 of 11 matches (91%) and average 1.73 goals before halftime with an average of 0.18 goals conceded before the break. Over the full match Pogoń have an 85% win rate, a season goals average of 2.69 versus Zawisza’s 1.27, and a higher xG of 2.04 versus 1.23, indicating a substantial attacking advantage. Additionally, the hosts register more shots on target (7.5 vs 4.0) and keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches this season, which reinforces the scenario of taking a lead at the break and holding the result. However, recent form over the last five matches should be considered: Pogoń have won 1 of 5 (20%), while Zawisza have won 4 of 5 (80%), so the risk of a turnaround by the away side after halftime exists, but the numerical balance and xG and goal statistics favor 1/1.