Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów vs Chełmianka Chełm: match statistics

Looking at form, Chełmianka Chełm has a clear advantage: in the last 5 matches they scored 13 goals (avg. 2.6 per match) and remain unbeaten (4 wins, 1 draw), while Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów scored 12 goals (2.4 per match) with a record of 3 wins and 2 losses. Defensively the visitors conceded 6 goals in those five matches (1.2 per match), and the hosts 7 (1.4 per match), yielding a goal difference of +7 for Chełmianka versus +5 for Pogoń in this run. In terms of points gained Chełmianka averaged 2.6 points per match over the last 5 fixtures, and Pogoń 1.8 points, which indicates greater efficiency and consistency on the visitors’ side. Considering the higher goal averages, the absence of defeats and the better points average, I predict a win for the visitors, although the small difference in goals scored (13 vs 12) and the hosts’ ability to find the net keeps a draw a realistic outcome.

Both teams have a BTTS rate of 60% in their last 5 matches (3/5), indicating both sides scored in 3 of the last 5 fixtures for each team. In those same five matches Pogoń‑Sokół averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded (12 for, 7 against), while Chełmianka averaged 2.6 scored and 1.2 conceded (13 for, 6 against), suggesting frequent goal exchanges. Home xG is 1.30 versus xG against 1.24, confirming the hosts create and allow chances at a similar level; absence of xG data for the visitors limits a full defensive risk assessment. Given the 60% BTTS for both teams, the high average goals scored (2.4 and 2.6) and average goals conceded above 1 (1.4 and 1.2), I tip BTTS - Yes with a 70% probability versus 30% for No, noting that lack of seasonal data reduces overall confidence.

In the last 5 matches Pogoń‑Sokół Lubaczów scored an average of 2.4 goals and conceded 1.4, while Chełmianka Chełm scored an average of 2.6 goals and conceded 1.2. Based on this, a simple model gives expected goals of approximately 1.80 for the home side and 2.00 for the visitors, i.e. a total of 3.80 goals. Additionally, the home team had 100% of matches over 2.5 in the last 5 fixtures, the visitors 60%, and both teams have a 60% BTTS rate in the last 5, which increases the probability of multiple goals. The home side’s xG in the last 5 was 1.30 versus 2.4 actual goals scored, suggesting strong attacking efficiency for the hosts and the potential to sustain a high score. Given the forecasted 3.8 goals and high shares of over 2.5, I recommend backing Over 2.5 as the strongest and most data-driven signal.

Chełmianka has won 4 of their last 5 matches (80%) and were level at half-time in all five (5/5, 100%), which strongly indicates deciders occurring after the break. Pogoń‑Sokół led at the break in 2 of 5 games (40%) and have a higher average goals by half-time: 1.0 goal vs 0.5 for the visitors, but total average goals over the last 5 matches are similar: 2.4 for the home side versus 2.6 for Chełmianka. Both teams score most frequently after the break (on average 1.4 second-half goals for the home side and 1.5 for the visitors), which supports the scenario that a lead at the break could turn into a victory for the visitors after 90 minutes. Given the visitors’ 100% half-time draws and their 80% win rate in the last 5 matches, the strongest signal is a half-time draw and a Chełmianka win (HT/FT X/2) — I assign this scenario a 36% probability; secondarily I expect a full-time draw (HT/FT X/X 20%) and a small chance that Pogoń maintains their half-time lead to the end (HT/FT 1/1 8%).