Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów vs KS Hetman Zamosc: match statistics

KS Hetman Zamość have shown clearly better form in their last five matches, scoring 7 goals and suffering just 1 defeat, while Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów have scored only 2 goals and lost 4 times. The hosts average just 0.33 goals per home game, have failed to score in 67% of their matches and have not won any of them. Hetman create significantly more quality chances away from home, averaging an xG of 2.97 compared with Pogoń-Sokół’s 1.22, while also registering 27 shots and 13 shots on target per game against their opponents’ 11 and 2, respectively. The visitors have not lost any away match, although both ended in draws, meaning that alongside a Hetman win, a share of the points remains a realistic scenario. However, Hetman’s superiority in chance creation and far greater attacking consistency make an away win the most convincing outcome.

KS Hetman Zamość have a seasonal BTTS rate of 100%, although the sample size is very small, while Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów have recorded BTTS in only 33% of their matches. The key argument against both teams scoring is the hosts’ current attacking efficiency: over their last 5 matches, they have averaged just 0.4 goals and have failed to score in 33% of their games this season. Hetman have conceded an average of 1.0 goals in their last five appearances, while their defence has limited opponents to a low average xG of 0.80 in the available seasonal data. The visitors should create chances, as their average xG stands at 2.97 and Pogoń-Sokół have recently conceded 1.4 goals per match; however, the more likely scenario is that the hosts once again fail to reply with a goal. I rate BTTS - No at 56%, as the risk of a Pogoń-Sokół goal exists, but their attacking numbers are clearly weaker than Hetman’s metrics.

Pogoń-Sokół have scored just 0.4 goals per match over their last five fixtures, while Hetman conceded an average of 1.0 goal during the same period, limiting the outlook for the hosts. The visitors have a clearly stronger attacking profile: their average xG across the last five matches stands at 1.97, while opponents allowed an xG of 1.89. Despite this, only 20% of Pogoń-Sokół’s recent matches and 40% of Hetman’s fixtures went Over 2.5 goals, while the hosts have not recorded a single match above 3.5 goals this season. Hetman average 1.4 goals scored in their last five appearances, making a result around 0:1, 1:1 or 1:2 more likely than an open, high-scoring game. Therefore, Under 3.5 goals has the edge, as the model expects 2.45 total goals and leaves a clear margin below four goals.

Hetman are in clearly better current form: over their last five matches, they averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Pogoń-Sokół scored just 0.4 goals and allowed opponents to score 1.4 per game. The hosts have lost four of their last five matches and have not won any, whereas the visitors have suffered only one defeat, alongside three draws and one victory. The strongest argument in favour of a Hetman win is the second half, in which they averaged 1.5 goals and did not lose any of their last five such periods, while Pogoń-Sokół scored just 0.25 goals per match after the break. However, the visitors tend to start cautiously, having failed to score before half-time in their last five matches and gone into the break trailing in as many as 50% of cases. Therefore, the HT/FT scenario of Hetman leading at the break is only slightly more likely than a half-time draw followed by a Hetman turnaround and victory.