Pogoń Szczecin vs Motor Lublin: match statistics

Pogoń sit higher in the table, but they lost their only home match so far, failed to score, and allowed their opponents an xG of 2.47. Away from home, Motor average 2 goals per match, with 5 shots on target and an 18% conversion rate, and have also avoided defeat in their only away fixture to date. The hosts average 10 shots, 5 of them on target, but their xG of 1.26 has not yet translated into a goal, which reduces confidence in a home win. Motor’s defence also allows opponents opportunities, conceding an average of 2 goals and posting an xGA of 1.71, so Pogoń should create chances to respond. Both teams have suffered 2 defeats in their last five matches, and with no clear advantage for the hosts, a draw is the most likely outcome.

The BTTS - Yes pick is supported by the fact that, in the seasonal data, both teams have recorded this market in 100% of their matches, and neither has kept a clean sheet yet. Motor score an average of 2.0 goals per match, while Pogoń concede 2.0, which clearly strengthens the visitors’ chances of finding the net. Pogoń have a lower scoring output, averaging 1.0 goal, but they create a great deal: their xG stands at 2.44, while an average of 21 shots and 7 shots on target provides solid grounds for breaking down Motor’s defence. In their last five matches, the visitors conceded an average of 2.2 goals, with an xG against them of 1.95, meaning their defence regularly allows opponents to create chances. Pogoń’s recent form reduces confidence, as BTTS landed in 40% of their last five matches; however, Motor’s 60% rate and the league average of 65% still indicate that both teams should score.

The match profile is clearly goal-oriented: both teams have exceeded 1.5 goals in 100% of their matches so far, and both sides have scored in every one of them. Motor score an average of 2.0 goals and concede 2.0, while Pogoń score 1.0 goal and concede 2.0, which points to an open game. The hosts create a high volume of chances, with an average xG of 2.44 and 21 shots per match, while Motor’s average xG against stands at 1.71. In their last five matches, the visitors scored 10 goals and conceded 11, while matches featuring at least three goals occurred in 100% of cases. Although Pogoń’s recent results have been less goal-heavy, the projected total of 3.20 goals provides the strongest edge for Over 1.5.

Pogoń have a clear edge in chance creation quality: their average xG stands at 2.44 compared with Motor’s 1.36, while the hosts average 21 shots and 7 on target, versus 11 and 5 for their opponents. Motor are nevertheless dangerous early on, having scored an average of 0.8 goals before half-time in their last five matches, compared with Pogoń’s 0.4. The visitors were trailing at the break in 60% of those games, opening up turnaround scenarios for the hosts. Across their last five appearances, Pogoń have averaged 1.4 points per match and won 40% of their games, compared with Motor’s 1.0 point and 20% win rate. After the break, the hosts score an average of 0.8 goals, while Motor concede 1.0 during that period; over the full season, Motor allow opponents 2.0 goals per match. The most likely outcome therefore remains Pogoń leading at half-time and winning at full-time, although Motor’s high 18% finishing rate increases the risk of alternative results.