Pogoń Szczecin vs Wisła Kraków: match statistics

Pogoń Szczecin have the better record over their last five matches, collecting 10 points from 3 wins and a draw, while Wisła Kraków have earned 9 points. The hosts have conceded just 3 goals during this period, compared with Wisła’s 8, which is a significant defensive concern given their away average of 3 goals conceded per match. However, Krakow’s side create plenty of chances on the road, averaging 21.5 shots and an xG of 2.38 compared with Pogoń’s 1.53, so they should pose a threat in attack. The decisive factor is that Wisła have lost both of their away matches so far and failed to keep a clean sheet in either, whereas Pogoń average 1.5 goals at home from 5.5 shots on target per match. Home advantage and the visitors’ clearly weaker defensive organisation slightly increase the hosts’ chances of securing victory.

Both teams have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches this season, and neither has kept a clean sheet yet. Pogoń average 2.0 goals at home, while Wisła also score 2.0 goals away from home, with the Kraków side conceding as many as 3.0 goals per away match. The visitors’ attacking potential is confirmed by their very high averages of 2.38 xG and 8.5 shots on target, while Pogoń allow opponents 2.07 xG. Pogoń’s last five matches have been more defensive, as the team conceded only 0.6 goals per match and BTTS landed in 40% of cases, but Wisła still had BTTS in 80% of matches and conceded an average of 1.6 goals. The attacking strength of both sides against Wisła’s particularly vulnerable defence suggests that a goal for each team is the more likely outcome. This supports the BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal selection.

Both teams started the competition averaging 2.0 goals scored per match, while Wisła are conceding as many as 3.0 goals per game, which clearly increases the hosts’ attacking potential. Wisła create a high volume of chances: their average xG stands at 2.38, alongside 21.5 shots and 8.5 shots on target per match, while Pogoń allow opponents an xG of 2.07. In their last five matches, the Krakow side averaged 2.0 goals scored, with games involving them finishing Over 2.5 goals in 80% of cases. Pogoń have been more disciplined defensively recently, conceding 0.6 goals per match across their last five appearances, which is why the 3.5 line remains too high for the main selection. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams scored and conceded at least one goal in 100% of the available league matches, while the projected total of 3.30 goals provides this line with a clear margin.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Pogoń win, as the hosts were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches and did not trail at half-time in any of them. Over the same period, Wisła were behind at half-time in 40% of their matches, while their current away data shows that they conceded an average of 1.5 goals before the break, scoring just 0.5. After half-time, Pogoń have averaged 0.8 goals in their last five matches, while Wisła have allowed opponents an average of 0.8 goals, which favours the hosts edging an evenly balanced match in their direction. The advantage is not decisive, as Wisła create plenty of chances: their average xG is 2.38 compared with Pogoń’s 1.74, while their number of shots on target stands at 8.5 versus 3.5. Nevertheless, Pogoń have conceded just 0.6 goals per match in their last five appearances, compared with Wisła’s 1.6, making a Pogoń turnaround after the break more likely than an away win.