Pogoń Szczecin vs Wisła Płock: match statistics

Pogoń has the advantage in quality of chances at home: home xG averages 1.82 versus Wisła’s 1.30 xG away, and Pogoń’s SOT is 5.13 per match compared to 3.2 for the visitors. This translates into higher efficiency — Pogoń scores on average 1.8 goals at home, while Wisła scores just 1.07 away, and the percentage of matches without a goal is 13% versus 27% for Wisła. Wisła, however, shows better recent form: 3 wins in the last 5 matches and 1.8 points per game in that period versus 1 win and 0.8 points per game for Pogoń, which reduces the home side’s edge. Defensively Pogoń concedes 1.4 goals on average at home, and Wisła 1.13 away, but Wisła has 0% clean sheets on the road, which favors Pogoń’s attack. Taking into account the higher number of clear-cut chances (xG 1.82 vs 1.30, SOT 5.13 vs 3.2) and the superior home goals average, I expect a Pogoń win with probability 50%, a draw 28% and a Wisła win 22%.

The main signal for 'No Goal' is Pogoń’s very low seasonal home BTTS rate — only 27% — along with a high home clean sheet percentage of 47% and an average of 0.73 goals conceded at home per match. A competing 'BTTS - Yes' signal comes from Wisła Płock, who have 73% BTTS on the road and average 1.07 away goals, and the visitors are in good form (form l5: wlwwl). However, Pogoń creates more chances (12.73 shots and 3.93 on target vs 10.67 and 3.2) and has a higher xG (1.41 vs 1.30), suggesting better control and greater likelihood of maintaining a defensive edge at home. Last 5 matches give mixed signals — BTTS in Pogoń’s last 5 is 60% vs Wisła’s 40%, with average goals conceded 1.4 and 0.8 — so short-term the visitors could hit, but Pogoń’s seasonal home metrics are a strong factor reducing BTTS probability. As a result I weigh Pogoń’s seasonal home defense higher and tip 'No Goal' as more likely (60% vs 40%), despite the league average BTTS being 57%.

I estimate a total of about 2.43 expected goals: Pogoń 1.27 and Wisła 1.16. The basis is xG: Pogoń has xG_for 1.41 at home, while Wisła concedes xG_against 1.85 (home average 1.63); similarly Wisła attacks with xG_for 1.30, and Pogoń allows xG_against 1.67 (away average 1.49). Season metrics support at least 2 goals — Over 1.5 occurs for Pogoń in 60% of home matches and for Wisła in 80% of away games, therefore I assign an 85% probability to Over 1.5; Over 2.5 is clearly rarer (27% and 33%), hence Over 2.5 at 40%. Additionally Over 0.5 is almost certain (87% and 100%) and Wisła has 73% BTTS on the road, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides, while Over 3.5 I assess at about 10%.

Pogoń Szczecin has a clear advantage at the break: they led at half-time in 8 matches (53% of home appearances), score an average of 0.67 goals by half-time and concede only 0.13, and kept a clean sheet at the break in 87% of games. Over full matches the hosts win 53% of home games, have a season xG of 1.41 versus Wisła Płock’s 1.30 and average 12.73 shots and 3.93 shots on target per game compared to the visitors’ 10.67/3.20, which supports maintaining the lead. The counterargument is Wisła Płock’s form — the visitors have 73% of matches with both teams scoring (BTTS 73%) and have won 60% of their last 5 matches, so they are capable of a turnaround after half-time. Considering Pogoń’s half-time advantage and higher xG/shots, the most likely scenario is 1/1 (Pogoń leading at half-time and winning), so I assign it the highest probability while acknowledging the risk of being pegged back in the second half.