Polessya vs Livyi Bereh: match statistics

Polessya are 2nd in the table and have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 13 goals during that run, while Livyi Bereh sit 12th and have managed just one win and four draws in their last five games. At home, the hosts average 3 goals per match, 5 shots on target and create chances worth 1.55 xG, clearly outperforming the visitors’ away averages of 0.5 goals, 1 shot on target and 0.58 xG. Livyi Bereh defend solidly away from home, conceding an average of 0.5 goals against 0.65 xG, but fail to score in 50% of such matches and have drawn all of their away fixtures so far. Polessya allow opponents just 0.70 xG at home, so the superior chance quality and significantly greater attacking efficiency of the hosts point to a home win.

The league’s baseline profile clearly favors a scenario in which at least one team fails to score: BTTS lands in only 36% of matches, while clean sheets account for as much as 87%. Season data shows both teams averaging 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per match, with 50% of games ending without a goal from each side. Polessya are in better current attacking form, scoring 2.6 goals with an xG of 1.30 across their last five matches, while Livyi Bereh conceded just 0.6 goals per game over the same period. The visitors have also managed only 1.2 goals and an xG of 1.08 in their last five appearances, while the hosts allow an average of 0.8 goals. Therefore, the most likely outcome is a defensive performance in which either Polessya or Livyi Bereh keeps a clean sheet, supporting the BTTS - No / No Goal selection.

Seasonal data points to a very cautious profile for both teams: each scores and concedes an average of just 0.5 goals per match, while their average xG stands at 0.40 for Polessya and 0.58 for Livyi Bereh. Both teams have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches, and neither has exceeded the 2.5-goal line in their games so far. Polessya’s recent form is clearly stronger, as they have scored 2.6 goals per match across their last five games, but Livyi Bereh have conceded just 0.6 goals during that period. The visitors also average only 1.08 xG created per match in their last five outings, limiting their projection to around 0.75 goals. Under 3.5 has the edge, as the expected total of 2.10 goals provides a substantial safety margin even with an offensive contribution from the home side.

Polessya are in clearly stronger current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.6 goals, while Livyi Bereh have won just 1 match and as many as 80% of their games have ended in draws. The hosts were leading at the break in 80% of their last five matches, averaging 1.0 goal scored and just 0.2 conceded before half-time; the visitors took the lead in only 20% of cases. Polessya’s advantage is also evident after the interval, when they score an average of 1.6 goals per match, compared with just 0.8 for Livyi Bereh. Although data from this very short section of the season suggests a cautious start, the hosts’ recent results and positive half-time goal difference of +4 point most strongly towards Polessya leading after 45 minutes and maintaining their victory until the final whistle.