Polessya vs Obolon-Brovar: match statistics
Polessya vs Obolon-Brovar: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Polessya played Obolon-Brovar in Ukrainian Premier League (Ukraine). The match was played on 26 April 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Polessya: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Obolon-Brovar: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Polessya scores 1.71 and concedes 0.67 goals per match. Obolon-Brovar scores 0.88 and concedes 1.63. League average: 2.58 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Polessya 25%, Obolon-Brovar 42%. Over 2.5: Polessya 38%, Obolon-Brovar 54%. League level: BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Polessya has higher xG: 1.50 vs 1.10. Polessya: 13.3 shots per match, Obolon-Brovar: 9.0.
Match halves
Polessya: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.63. Obolon-Brovar: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.33.
Goals by minute
Polessya: 31-45+ (11 goals). Obolon-Brovar: 0-15 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ukrainian Premier League: 2.58 goals per match, BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Polessya has a clear advantage on paper: they sit 3rd and have scored 41 goals this season, while Obolon-Brovar are 12th with only 18 goals. In the last 5 matches the home side recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, scoring 9 goals and averaging 2.0 points per game, whereas the visitors have not won any of their last 5 matches (0-2-3), scoring 5 goals and averaging 0.4 points. Defensively at home Polessya concedes 0.67 goals per game on average and has 58% clean sheets, while Obolon away concedes 1.55 goals on average and has only 18% clean sheets; additionally in the last 5 matches the hosts conceded 2 goals and the visitors 12. The quality of chances created confirms the hosts’ advantage: Polessya’s average xG is 1.51 versus 0.98 for Obolon, shots on target 4.83 vs 2.73 and possession 56% vs 42%. Taking into account 41 vs 18 goals, 0.67 vs 1.55 conceded, the xG and form advantage (averaging 2.0 vs 0.4 points), I predict a home win with probability 70%, draw 18% and away win 12%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal indicators are moderate: Polessya has BTTS at 42%, Obolon-Brovar 45%, and the league average is 41%, so historically the market sits around 40–45%. However, the last 5 matches give a clear signal against BTTS — Polessya has only 20% BTTS in the last 5, scored 9 and conceded 2 (avg 1.8 scored and 0.4 conceded), while Obolon has 60% BTTS, scored 5 and conceded 12 (avg 1.0 and 2.4). xG outcomes confirm this gap: in the last 5 Polessya generated 1.92 xG and conceded 0.67 xG, and Obolon 1.17 xG and conceded 1.34 xG, showing the home side’s offensive edge and defensive stability. Additionally, for the season Polessya has 33% clean sheets and averages 3.67 shots on target per home match, whereas Obolon has 18% clean sheets and 2.73 shots on target, which undermines the visitors’ chances of scoring. Considering Polessya’s clear superiority in form and defense over the last 5 matches, I assign a 60% probability to No BTTS and 40% to BTTS; recommended stake: 'no'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Based on xG I estimate 1.34 goals for Polessya and 1.22 for Obolon-Brovar, a total of 2.56 goals. This results from combining the home attack xG 1.21 and the away defense xG conceded 1.46 (for the home goals estimate), and analogously 0.98 and 1.45 for the away side. A Poisson model with λ=2.56 yields probability of Over 1.5 ≈ 73% (Under 27%), Over 2.5 ≈ 47% (Under 53%) and Over 3.5 ≈ 26% (Under 74%). Additionally, Polessya in their last 5 matches scored 9 and conceded 2 (avg 1.8 and 0.4), while Obolon in their last 5 have 5 scored and 12 conceded (1.0 and 2.4), which supports the home advantage in chance creation. Considering the projected 2.56 goals and season over 1.5 rates: 67% for the home side and 73% for the away, the strongest signal is to play Over 1.5 (selection: Over, line 1.5).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
In the last 5 matches the home side have won 60% of games (3 of 5), while the visitors have not won any (0% - 0 of 5), indicating better form for Polessya. The hosts led at the break in 60% of those fixtures (3/5), versus 0% for the visitors (0/5); the average goals at half-time in the last 5 matches is 1.4 for the home team compared to 0.4 for the away side, favoring the leader after 45 minutes. Over the season the hosts’ xG is 1.21 versus 0.98 for the visitors, and the home team averages 3.67 shots on target per match against 2.73 for the away team, so Polessya creates more high-quality chances. Additionally, the hosts conceded an average of 0.4 goals in the last 5 matches, while the visitors conceded 2.4, which increases the likelihood that Polessya will maintain the lead and win. Based on these figures the strongest signal is 1/1 (home team leads at half-time and wins full-time).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Polessya | Obolon-Brovar | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Polessya is 400% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Polessya · 0.4 pts / match - Obolon-Brovar
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Polessya is 94% better for: goals scored per match.
1.71 goals / match - Polessya · 0.88 goals / match - Obolon-Brovar
Polessya is 143% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.67 goals / match - Polessya · 1.63 goals / match - Obolon-Brovar
Polessya scores in 71% of matches (17 of 24 matches), while Obolon-Brovar keeps a clean sheet in 29% (7 of 24 matches).
Obolon-Brovar scores in 54% of matches (13 of 24 matches), while Polessya keeps a clean sheet in 58% (14 of 24 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Polessya
Over / Under - Obolon-Brovar
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Polessya is 74% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.88 pts / match - Polessya · 1.08 pts / match - Obolon-Brovar
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Polessya - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 58%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Obolon-Brovar - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +6 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (11 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (5 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Polessya
Obolon-Brovar
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ukrainian Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Polessya | Liga | Obolon-Brovar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.38 | 2.58 | • 2.50 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 25% | 41% | • 42% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 38% | 47% | ▲ 54% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 58% | 34% | ▼ 29% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 71% | 68% | ▼ 63% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 71% | 75% | ▼ 63% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Polessya 1 - 0 - 0 Obolon-Brovar. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Polessya vs Obolon-Brovar?
The Ukrainian Premier League match finished Polessya 3:1 Obolon-Brovar. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Polessya vs Obolon-Brovar?
Polessya score 1.71 goals per game on average and Obolon-Brovar 0.88. The Ukrainian Premier League average is 2.58 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 25% of Polessya's matches and 42% of Obolon-Brovar's.
What form are Polessya and Obolon-Brovar in?
Over the last 5 games Polessya have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Obolon-Brovar 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Polessya vs Obolon-Brovar?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.