Police vs Marines: match statistics
Police vs Marines: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Police played Marines in National Soccer League (Rwanda). The match was played on 25 April 2026. Final score: 2:0.
Current form
Police: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Marines: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Police scores 0.85 and concedes 0.63 goals per match. Marines scores 1.26 and concedes 1.15. League average: 2.05 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Police 37%, Marines 56%. Over 2.5: Police 22%, Marines 37%. League level: BTTS 44%, Over 2.5 35%.
xG, shots and style
Marines has higher xG: 1.16 vs 1.12. Police: 5.9 shots per match, Marines: 6.8.
Match halves
Police: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.44. Marines: half-time lead 48%, second-half goals 0.48.
Goals by minute
Police: 16-30 (5 goals). Marines: 31-45+ (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National Soccer League: 2.05 goals per match, BTTS 44%, Over 2.5 35%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Police hold a clear defensive edge at home — conceding only 0.71 goals per home match and boasting a +5 home goal difference, while Marines concede 1.36 goals per away match and have an away goal difference of -2. Offensively Marines look stronger on the season (34 goals vs Police’s 23) and average 1.21 goals away compared to the hosts’ 1.07 at home; their away xG is 1.30 vs the hosts’ xG 1.21, indicating a slight quality advantage in chances for the visitors. In the last 5 matches Police scored 4 and conceded 6, averaging 0.8 points per match, whereas Marines scored 7 and conceded 5, translating to 1.6 points per match; this improves the visitors’ prospects for an away result. Marines generate more shots on target (3.64 SoT per match vs 2.92 for the hosts), but Police have a higher conversion rate at home (17% vs 15%), so the visitors create more opportunities while the hosts are more efficient with fewer chances. Considering Police’s strong home defence and superior goal difference (+5 vs -2), I project a narrow home win, although Marines’ offensive activity and better form increase the probability of a draw.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have season BTTS rates of 54% (Police) and 57% (Marines), and in the last 5 matches BTTS was 60% for Police and 80% for Marines, strongly favoring a both-teams-to-score scenario. Marines generate more quality opportunities — season xG_for is 1.30 with an average of 1.21 goals scored, while Police have xG_for 0.99 with 1.31 goals per game, so the visitors create more chances and the hosts can be efficient in finishing. Defensively Police concede 0.92 goals per game season-wide and have 31% clean sheets, whereas Marines concede 1.36 and have only 21% clean sheets; in the last 5 matches Police conceded on average 1.2 and Marines 1.0, therefore both sides regularly allow the opponent to score. Additionally, Marines record 3.64 shots on target per game versus 2.18 for Police, and season total goals are Police 23 and Marines 34, which demonstrates both teams’ ability to find the net. Considering the season 54%/57%, recent 60%/80%, low clean sheet rates of 31% and 21%, and Marines’ advantage in shots on target at 3.64, I assess BTTS probability at 68% and recommend a BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG analysis shows Police has an attacking xG of 0.99 and Marines 1.30; xG conceded is 0.94 for Police and 1.30 for Marines, yielding expected goals of 1.15 for Police and 1.12 for Marines (total 2.27). A Poisson model with lambda=2.27 gives probability of Over 1.5 goals around 66%, Over 2.5 around 40% and Over 3.5 around 20%. Season data confirm a moderate tendency toward 2–3 goals: Police have Over 1.5 in 62% of matches, Marines in 79%, but Over 2.5 occurs only in 38% and 36% of cases, and Over 3.5 in just 23% and 14%. The share of matches where both teams scored is 54% for Police and 57% for Marines, so BTTS is possible but rarely translates into 4+ goals. As a result the strongest signal is Under 3.5 (about 80% chance) — this line offers the largest statistical edge versus alternatives (Over 1.5 ~66%, Over 2.5 ~40%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Police led at the break in 54% of their home matches (7 instances) and average 0.85 goals by half-time while conceding only 0.23, which is a strong indicator of a home lead after 45 minutes. Marines have a higher xG (1.30 vs 0.99 for Police) and a seasonal scoring average of 1.21 goals per match, but on the road they score only 0.71 by half-time and concede 0.50, so they are not favored to lead at half-time. Over full matches Police also perform better: seasonal goals per game 1.31 vs 1.21 for Marines, and the hosts average 1.69 points at home compared to 1.07 points away for Marines; additionally Police keep a clean sheet at half-time in 77% of home matches. Historically, a lead at the break translates into victory — Police average 1.92 points at the half and with 54% HT leads they frequently convert that into a win after 90 minutes. On that basis the most likely scenario is Police leading at half-time and maintaining the win (1/1), so I assign the highest probability to this outcome.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Police | Marines | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Marines is 100% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Police · 1.6 pts / match - Marines
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Marines is 48% better for: goals scored per match.
0.85 goals / match - Police · 1.26 goals / match - Marines
Police is 83% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.63 goals / match - Police · 1.15 goals / match - Marines
Police scores in 59% of matches (16 of 27 matches), while Marines keeps a clean sheet in 26% (7 of 27 matches).
Marines scores in 81% of matches (22 of 27 matches), while Police keeps a clean sheet in 41% (11 of 27 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Police
Over / Under - Marines
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Marines is 14% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.56 pts / match - Police · 1.78 pts / match - Marines
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Police - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 37%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Marines - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 48% of matches and wins 37%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (13 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Police
Marines
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National Soccer League).
Teams vs league
| Police | Liga | Marines | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.48 | 2.05 | ▲ 2.41 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 37% | 44% | ▲ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 22% | 35% | ▲ 37% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 41% | 34% | ▼ 26% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 48% | 60% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 69% | • 70% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Other recorded players
Away team
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- PoliceGoalHenry Msanga
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Police 1 - 0 - 0 Marines. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Police vs Marines?
The National Soccer League match finished Police 2:0 Marines. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Police vs Marines?
Police score 0.85 goals per game on average and Marines 1.26. The National Soccer League average is 2.05 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 35% of games. Both teams score in 37% of Police's matches and 56% of Marines's.
What form are Police and Marines in?
Over the last 5 games Police have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Marines 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Police vs Marines?
The statistical background for Police vs Marines — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.