Police vs Nairobi United: match statistics
Nairobi United displays significantly better away form with a 60% win rate and a superior goal difference (+1) on the road. Police has a very poor home offense, averaging only 0.29 goals per home match, with 71% of games ending without them scoring. The visitors average 0.8 goals away and have a higher average of shots on target (4.0 vs 2.29). Nairobi United also achieves better xG values (0.87 vs 0.75), confirming their offensive advantage. Given Police's poor efficiency in home matches (29% win rate) and the solid away form of the guests, I predict a win for Nairobi United.
Police vs Nairobi United: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Police played Nairobi United in Kenyan Premier League (Kenya). The match was played on 16 January 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Police: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Nairobi United: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Police scores 0.75 and concedes 0.69 goals per match. Nairobi United scores 1.25 and concedes 1.13. League average: 1.92 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Police 25%, Nairobi United 44%. Over 2.5: Police 19%, Nairobi United 31%. League level: BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 30%.
xG, shots and style
Nairobi United has higher xG: 1.61 vs 1.57. Police: 11.3 shots per match, Nairobi United: 10.8.
Match halves
Police: half-time lead 6%, second-half goals 0.00. Nairobi United: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.31.
Goals by minute
Police: 0-15 (11 goals). Nairobi United: 0-15 (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kenyan Premier League: 1.92 goals per match, BTTS 41%, Over 2.5 30%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Nairobi United displays significantly better away form with a 60% win rate and a superior goal difference (+1) on the road. Police has a very poor home offense, averaging only 0.29 goals per home match, with 71% of games ending without them scoring. The visitors average 0.8 goals away and have a higher average of shots on target (4.0 vs 2.29). Nairobi United also achieves better xG values (0.87 vs 0.75), confirming their offensive advantage. Given Police's poor efficiency in home matches (29% win rate) and the solid away form of the guests, I predict a win for Nairobi United.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Police | Nairobi United | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nairobi United is 67% better for: goals scored per match.
0.75 goals / match - Police · 1.25 goals / match - Nairobi United
Police is 64% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.69 goals / match - Police · 1.13 goals / match - Nairobi United
Police scores in 50% of matches (8 of 16 matches), while Nairobi United keeps a clean sheet in 25% (4 of 16 matches).
Nairobi United scores in 69% of matches (11 of 16 matches), while Police keeps a clean sheet in 50% (8 of 16 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Police
Over / Under - Nairobi United
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nairobi United is 12% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.06 pts / match - Police · 1.19 pts / match - Nairobi United
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Police - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 6% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Nairobi United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 goal | 0% | 0% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 100% |
| No goal | 100% | 100% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (11 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (11 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Police
Nairobi United
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kenyan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Police | Liga | Nairobi United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.44 | 1.92 | ▲ 2.38 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 25% | 41% | ▲ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 19% | 30% | • 31% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 38% | ▼ 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 13% | 32% | ▲ 44% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 6% | 35% | ▲ 38% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
FAQ
What was the result of Police vs Nairobi United?
The Kenyan Premier League match finished Police 1:1 Nairobi United. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Police vs Nairobi United?
Police score 0.75 goals per game on average and Nairobi United 1.25. The Kenyan Premier League average is 1.92 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 30% of games. Both teams score in 25% of Police's matches and 44% of Nairobi United's.
What form are Police and Nairobi United in?
Over the last 5 games Police have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Nairobi United 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Police vs Nairobi United?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Police vs Nairobi United: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.