Police vs Tusker: match statistics
Police vs Tusker: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Police play Tusker in Kenyan Premier League (Kenya). The match date is 3 April 2026 at 17:00. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Police: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match. Tusker: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Police scores 0.97 and concedes 0.62 goals per match. Tusker scores 0.83 and concedes 0.93. League average: 2.01 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Police 31%, Tusker 34%. Over 2.5: Police 21%, Tusker 28%. League level: BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 33%.
xG, shots and style
Police has higher xG: 1.62 vs 1.42. Police: 12.4 shots per match, Tusker: 10.9.
Match halves
Police: half-time lead 3%, second-half goals 0.00. Tusker: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 0.21.
Goals by minute
Police: 0-15 (27 goals). Tusker: 0-15 (14 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kenyan Premier League: 2.01 goals per match, BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 33%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 1-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Match description
In my assessment the visitors are the favorites and I tip a Tusker win. Tusker has a 54% away win rate versus Police’s 31% home win rate, and away they convert 11% of shots and average 1.00 goals per match, while Police at home only have a 5% conversion and 0.69 goals per match and fail to score in 46% of games (compared to 23% for Tusker). Police do, however, possess a strong home defense: they concede just 0.54 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in 54% of matches, whereas Tusker concede 0.85 on the road and record 38% clean sheets. xG shows Police create more chances (xG 1.65 at home vs 1.26 for Tusker) but significantly underperform their xG (0.69 goals vs xG 1.65, i.e. -0.96), while Tusker are closer to expectations (1.26 xG vs 1.00 goals). Considering the efficiency advantage (11% vs 5%), the lower share of goalless games (23% vs 46%) and Tusker’s 54% away win rate, I assess the probability of a away win at 48%, a draw at 30% and a home win at 22%.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Police | Tusker | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Police is 225% better for: last-5 form.
2.6 pts / match - Police · 0.8 pts / match - Tusker
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Police is 17% better for: goals scored per match.
0.97 goals / match - Police · 0.83 goals / match - Tusker
Police is 50% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.62 goals / match - Police · 0.93 goals / match - Tusker
Police scores in 62% of matches (18 of 29 matches), while Tusker keeps a clean sheet in 38% (11 of 29 matches).
Tusker scores in 66% of matches (19 of 29 matches), while Police keeps a clean sheet in 52% (15 of 29 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Police
Over / Under — Tusker
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tusker is 7% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.03 pts / match - Police · 1.1 pts / match - Tusker
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Police - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 3% of matches and wins 45%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Tusker - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 41%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 goal | 0% | 0% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 100% |
| No goal | 100% | 100% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 goal | 0% | 0% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 100% |
| No goal | 100% | 100% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (27 goli). Concedes most in 0-15 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (14 goli). Concedes most in 0-15 (20). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Police
Tusker
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kenyan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Police | Liga | Tusker | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.59 | 2.01 | ▼ 1.76 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 31% | 43% | ▼ 34% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 21% | 33% | ▼ 28% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 52% | 36% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 7% | 21% | ▲ 31% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 3% | 22% | • 21% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Police 1 - 0 - 0 Tusker. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Police vs Tusker?
The Kenyan Premier League match finished Police 1:0 Tusker. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Police vs Tusker?
Police score 0.97 goals per game on average and Tusker 0.83. The Kenyan Premier League average is 2.01 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 33% of games. Both teams score in 31% of Police's matches and 34% of Tusker's.
What form are Police and Tusker in?
Over the last 5 games Police have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and Tusker 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Police vs Tusker?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.