Polisi Morogoro vs JKT Tanzania: match statistics

Polisi Morogoro have a clearly better record across their last five matches, scoring 7 goals and averaging 1.4 points per game, while JKT Tanzania have scored only 3 and averaged 0.8 points. In their only home match so far, the hosts drew 1-1 but created good-quality chances, recording an xG of 1.69 while conceding just 0.84 xG. Their edge in chance creation is also reflected in an average of 12 shots and 6 shots on target per home game. Polisi’s weak point, however, is their recent defensive form, having conceded as many as 17 goals in five matches, which keeps the draw as a realistic outcome. Nevertheless, JKT Tanzania have lost 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged only 0.6 goals per game, slightly favouring the hosts.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as JKT Tanzania have averaged just 0.6 goals in their last 5 matches, while both teams scored in only 40% of those fixtures. Polisi Morogoro do have a high BTTS rate of 80%, but this is also driven by their defensive weakness: they conceded as many as 3.4 goals per match on average, compared with 1.4 scored. The visitors created chances worth an average of 1.04 xG, while the hosts allowed opponents just 1.35 xG, which does not provide a particularly strong basis for expecting JKT to score. The league BTTS average stands at 50%, but the visitors’ low attacking efficiency and just 3 goals in their last five appearances shift the forecast towards a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

Polisi Morogoro’s last five matches produced an average of 4.8 goals, as the team scored 1.4 goals but conceded as many as 3.4 per game. At least three goals were scored in 80% of these matches, compared with 60% for JKT Tanzania. The hosts’ potential is supported by an average xG of 1.46, higher than the 1.27 xG recently allowed by JKT, while the visitors created 1.04 xG against 1.35 xG allowed by Polisi. Caution is warranted by the low league average of 2.17 goals and just 33% of matches featuring at least three goals, which is why the 2.5 line remains finely balanced. The strongest pick is Over 1.5, as the projected 2.60 goals and the hosts’ weak recent defensive record clearly point towards at least two goals.

The seasonal data do not contain any useful values, so the assessment is based primarily on the last five matches played by both teams. Half-Time draws occurred in 40% of those matches for each side, while JKT Tanzania never held a lead at the break, scoring an average of just 0.2 goals before half-time. Polisi Morogoro have also shown limited first-half efficiency, averaging 0.4 goals scored while conceding as many as 1.8, which reduces confidence in a home win. After the break, JKT Tanzania drew in 60% of their matches, and their games produced an average of only 1.0 goal in the second half, making a draw maintained until full-time the most likely scenario. The main risk to this pick is Polisi Morogoro's defence, which conceded a combined average of 3.4 goals per match across their last five games; consequently, the away-win HT/FT outcomes were also rated relatively highly.