Polisi Morogoro vs Mbeya City: match statistics

Mbeya City sit 5th and have collected 10 points from their last five matches, winning 3 games, while Polisi Morogoro have taken 7 points during the same period. However, the hosts create more chances at home: their average xG stands at 1.76 compared with Mbeya’s 1.50, while they also average 13.5 shots and 7 on target per match, compared with their opponents’ 7.5 and 2.5. Polisi score 1.33 goals per home game and have not been held scoreless there, but they concede an average of 1 goal. The visitors have impressed with their away defensive record, conceding no goals in their two matches on the road and keeping a clean sheet in 100% of those appearances, although they failed to score in 50% of them. The combination of the hosts’ greater attacking activity, Mbeya’s highly resilient defence, and both teams’ high draw rates at home and away points towards a share of the spoils as the most likely outcome.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Mbeya City have yet to concede away from home, keeping a clean sheet in 100% of their matches. The visitors have also recorded Goal/Goal in just 20% of their last five appearances, while conceding an average of only 0.4 goals during this period. Polisi Morogoro score an average of 1.33 goals at home, but have failed to score in 33% of their matches, which, combined with the opponent’s solid defence, increases the risk of a home-team No Goal outcome. Mbeya City do record an xG of 1.50 away from home, but the hosts concede just 0.67 goals per match at home, so the visitors will also find it difficult to score. The seasonal BTTS figures stand at only 33% for Polisi Morogoro and 0% for Mbeya City, clearly below the league average of 48%.

The strongest signal is the low goal line: both teams have recorded a maximum of three goals in 100% of their matches this season. Mbeya City have yet to concede away from home, while in their last five matches they have conceded an average of just 0.4 goals, clearly limiting the hosts’ attacking potential. Polisi Morogoro average 1.33 goals at home, but only 33% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals; for Mbeya City, this figure stands at 0%. The last five matches have produced an average of 2.8 goals for Polisi and only 1.6 for Mbeya, but the visitors’ defensive form and the absence of any matches exceeding 3.5 goals for either side point towards a result in the 0–3 goal range. With a projected total of 2.00 goals, the Under 3.5 goals option holds a clear advantage.

The strongest scenario is a draw both at half-time and at full-time, as Mbeya City have drawn the first half in 100% of their away matches to date and in 60% of their last five matches overall. The visitors have yet to concede away from home, keeping a clean sheet in 100% of such appearances, while neither scoring nor conceding before the break. Polisi Morogoro have averaged just 0.33 goals scored and 0.33 goals conceded in the first half of their current home matches, also pointing to a cautious and evenly balanced start. After the break, both teams average 1.0 goal scored, but Mbeya City have conceded only 0.4 goals per match across their last five fixtures, making a low-scoring draw the most logical outcome. The hosts have a higher probability of winning at home, 67% compared with the visitors’ 50%, but Mbeya City’s stronger recent form—2.0 points per match over their last five appearances versus 1.4—limits Polisi’s advantage.