Polkowice vs Carina Gubin: match statistics

Polkowice are clear favorites after a run of 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, while Carina Gubin have collected just 1 point and lost 4 games during the same period. The hosts win 67% of their home matches, scoring an average of 3.33 goals, whereas the visitors have lost both of their away fixtures so far and average just 0.5 goals per game. Polkowice’s advantage is also evident in chance creation: their average xG stands at 1.78 compared with Carina’s 1.11, while the hosts register an average of 6 shots on target per match to their opponents’ 3. Carina’s defense allows an average of 2.29 xG and 3 goals away from home, with the team yet to keep a clean sheet in those matches. Polkowice also concede heavily at home, averaging 2.67 goals per game, but the visitors’ poor finishing and the fact that they have failed to score in 50% of their away matches support a home win.

The BTTS scenario does not have a clear edge, as Carina Gubin score an average of just 0.50 goals per game this season and only 0.40 over their last 5 matches, scoring 2 goals in total during that period. The visitors failed to score in 50% of their matches, while their shot conversion rate stands at a very low 4%, despite recording an xG of 1.18 across their last five appearances. Polkowice are vulnerable defensively, with no clean sheets and an average of 1.40 goals conceded over their last 5 matches, which gives the visitors a realistic chance of scoring. However, the hosts are clearly more effective in front of goal, averaging 1.80 goals per match in their last 5 fixtures compared with Carina’s 0.40, so a Polkowice-only scoring outcome is more likely than both teams finding the net. The case for BTTS - No is further supported by Carina’s BTTS rate of 40% in their last 5 matches, below the league average of 52%.

Over 1.5 goals has a clear statistical basis, as Polkowice’s matches have gone over this line in 75% of cases, while Carina Gubin’s fixtures have done so in 100%. Neither team has kept a clean sheet so far, with Carina conceding as many as 3.0 goals per match on average, significantly increasing the hosts’ scoring potential. In their last five appearances, Polkowice averaged 1.8 goals scored, while Carina’s opponents averaged 2.4 goals against them. The hosts’ attacking potential is supported by 1.34 xG per match, whereas the visitors’ defence allows an average of 2.29 xG. The 2.5 line is also realistic, but given Carina’s poor finishing, with just 0.5 goals scored on average, Over 1.5 remains the safer and strongest option.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Polkowice win, as the home side were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Carina. The Polkowice team are showing clearly better current form, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, while Carina average just 0.4 goals scored and 2.4 conceded. The hosts also create more chances, averaging 14.5 shots and 6 on target, compared with their opponents’ 11.5 shots and 3 on target. After the break, Polkowice averaged 1.2 goals scored across their last five matches, while Carina conceded 1.6, further supporting the scenario of the hosts turning the game in their favour in the second half. Carina have lost 80% of their last five matches and have not won any of them, so there is limited evidence to suggest they can preserve a favourable result until the final whistle.