Polonia Lidzbark Warm. vs Olimpia Zambrów: match statistics

Olimpia Zambrów are showing clearly stronger recent form: they have collected 10 points from their last five matches, with 3 wins, a draw and a defeat, while Polonia have taken 7 points. The visitors have scored 13 goals and conceded just 5 during this period, whereas the hosts have recorded a 9:9 goal difference, indicating greater two-way stability from Olimpia. Polonia do hold an advantage in the data from their only home match, averaging 1.15 xG compared with Olimpia’s 0.93 xG away from home, but their defence allowed as much as 2.41 xG and 2 goals per game. Olimpia also performed poorly in their only away fixture so far, losing and conceding 4 goals, meaning the hosts have a realistic chance of scoring. However, superior finishing and the recent form trend marginally favour an away win.

The strongest signal for BTTS - No comes from the current results in these conditions: Polonia score an average of 5.0 goals and have conceded none, while Olimpia have failed to score and concede an average of 4.0. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in 100% of such matches, while Olimpia have failed to find the net even once, and both teams currently have a BTTS rate of 0% in this setting. The qualitative data also supports Polonia’s advantage: their xG stands at 2.12, compared with Olimpia’s 2.17 xG conceded, while the visitors create just 0.93 xG against a Polonia defence allowing 0.61. The five-match form is less conclusive, as Polonia had BTTS in 80% of their matches, but Olimpia only in 20%; therefore, the more likely scenario remains one in which at least one team—most notably the visitors—fails to score.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as all matches in the current data set for both teams have exceeded the 1.5-goal line, while the league average stands at a high 3.55 goals. In their last five matches, Polonia averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, while Olimpia scored as many as 2.6 goals per game. The visitors’ attacking potential is further supported by an xG of 1.64 over their last five appearances, whereas Polonia allowed opponents an xG of 1.84. The 2.5 line also has merit, having been covered in 60% of Polonia’s and 80% of Olimpia’s recent matches; however, the greater volatility of the results makes Over 1.5 goals the clearly safer option.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Olimpia Zambrów win after the match, as the visitors have averaged 2.6 goals and won 60% of their matches over their last five games, compared with Polonia’s 1.8 goals and 40% win rate. Polonia were level at half-time in 50% of their recent matches, while their average first-half record stood at 0.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded, which points to an evenly balanced opening. After the break, Olimpia averaged 1.5 goals, whereas the hosts conceded an average of 1.25 goals in that period. The current home and away data are highly extreme, with Polonia winning 5–0 at home and Olimpia losing 0–4 away, but these figures are based on only one appearance for each team. Therefore, the visitors’ stronger current attacking form provides more convincing support for a post-break turnaround than for them to lead at the break.