Polonia Lidzbark Warm. vs Wisła Płock II: match statistics

Wisła Płock II remain unbeaten this season, winning both of their matches so far, while their last five games have produced 4 wins and a draw. Polonia, meanwhile, have recorded 2 wins, a draw and 2 defeats. The visitors are clearly more clinical: away from home, they average 2 goals per match with a 22% shot conversion rate, compared with Polonia’s 1 goal and 8% conversion rate at home. Wisła’s advantage is also evident in chance creation, as they average 5 shots on target per match, compared with just 1 accurate effort by the hosts. Polonia’s defence concedes an average of 2 goals at home and allows opponents an xG of 2.41, whereas Wisła restrict their opponents to an xG of 1.24 and concede 1 goal on average. The hosts could find the net, as neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, but the current trends point to a greater likelihood of an away win for Wisła Płock II.

The signal for both teams to score is very strong, as both Polonia Lidzbark Warmiński and Wisła Płock II have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches this season, compared with the league average of 61%. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, and neither has finished a match without scoring, while their season averages stand at 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game each. In their last five matches, the hosts averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, while the visitors scored 2.4 goals and conceded 1.2 on average. The quality of chances created also supports both sides: Polonia’s xG is 1.42 and Wisła’s 1.66, with xG conceded at 1.84 and 1.64 respectively. BTTS occurred in 80% of the hosts’ last five matches and in all five of the visitors’ games, making a scenario with at least one goal from each team the most likely outcome.

Both teams are averaging 2.0 goals per game in the current campaign, while neither has kept a clean sheet. In their last five matches, Polonia averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, whereas Wisła II recorded even higher figures: 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The combined xG from the last five matches stands at 3.08, while the hosts’ defence allowed opponents an xG of 1.84, which supports the prospect of an away goal. Over 1.5 goals has landed in 100% of both teams’ matches so far, and the league average of 3.28 goals further supports an open, high-scoring game. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as the data clearly points to at least two goals, with lower risk than higher goal lines.

Wisła Płock II are in clearly better current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored an average of 2.4 goals in those games, while Polonia have won twice, averaged 1.8 goals and suffered defeat in 40% of their matches. At half-time, the visitors have avoided defeat in each of their last five matches, leading in 60% of them but drawing in 40%, whereas Polonia were level at the break in 50% of cases. The prospect of a draw at half-time is supported by the low average number of goals before the break: 0.8 in Wisła’s matches and 1.0 in Polonia’s games over the latest run. After the break, Wisła average 1.6 goals, while Polonia concede 1.25, with the visitors posting a positive second-half goal difference of +2 and the hosts recording a balance of 0. Therefore, the most likely scenario is an even start, followed by the more clinical Wisła Płock II turning the game in their favour.