Polonia Warszawa vs Chrobry Głogów: match statistics
Polonia Warszawa vs Chrobry Głogów: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Polonia Warszawa played Chrobry Głogów in 1. Liga (Poland). The match was played on 25 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Polonia Warszawa: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Chrobry Głogów: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Polonia Warszawa scores 1.55 and concedes 1.48 goals per match. Chrobry Głogów scores 1.41 and concedes 0.97. League average: 2.95 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Polonia Warszawa 72%, Chrobry Głogów 55%. Over 2.5: Polonia Warszawa 59%, Chrobry Głogów 52%. League level: BTTS 65%, Over 2.5 60%.
xG, shots and style
Polonia Warszawa has higher xG: 1.66 vs 1.64. Polonia Warszawa: 14.1 shots per match, Chrobry Głogów: 13.4.
Match halves
Polonia Warszawa: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.93. Chrobry Głogów: half-time lead 34%, second-half goals 0.86.
Goals by minute
Polonia Warszawa: 76-90+ (11 goals). Chrobry Głogów: 76-90+ (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
1. Liga: 2.95 goals per match, BTTS 65%, Over 2.5 60%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The favorites are the visitors — Chrobry Głogów sit 2nd vs Polonia’s 5th, with 14 wins this season (Polonia 12) and a 50% away win rate compared to Polonia’s 36% home win rate. Chrobry’s key advantage is defense: the visitors concede 0.93 goals per away match, keep a clean sheet in 36% of games vs Polonia’s 29%, and have a +5 away goal difference while Polonia have -5 at home and concede 1.64 on average. Offensively both teams nominally average 1.29 goals per game, but Polonia generate xG 1.71 at home and still score only 1.29 (≈ -0.42), whereas Chrobry have xG 1.59 and score 1.29 (≈ -0.30), indicating better efficiency from the visitors. Polonia do produce slightly more shots (14 vs 12.71) and more shots on target (4.43 vs 4.14), yet this does not convert into goals. Form supports the visitors’ edge: Polonia in the last 5 matches have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses (0.8 pts/match) and conceded 10 goals; Chrobry have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (1.4 pts/match) and conceded 6 goals. Considering Chrobry’s superior defense, higher away win rate and Polonia’s poorer chance conversion (percentage of matches without scoring 29% vs 21%), I predict a Chrobry victory (approximately 55% probability).
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I project BTTS - Yes (75%) because seasonal BTTS rates for Polonia and Chrobry are 60% and 50% respectively, while the league BTTS rate is high at 65%. In the last 5 matches Polonia had BTTS in 60% of games and Chrobry in 80%; over those five Polonia scored 6 and conceded 10 goals (avg 1.2 and 2.0), whereas Chrobry scored 6 and conceded 6 (avg 1.2 and 1.2). xG confirms both teams create chances: Polonia xG for 1.68 with xG against 1.61, Chrobry xG for 1.59 with xG against 1.47 — both generate around 1.6 xG per match. Shot metrics further support BTTS: Polonia 14.0 shots with 5.0 on target and 11% conversion, Chrobry 12.71 shots with 4.14 on target and 10% conversion, and the league averages 2.94 goals per game. Additionally, low percentages of clean-sheet matches (Polonia 13%, Chrobry 21%) and Polonia’s weaker recent defense (2.0 conceded in L5) strengthen the Both Teams To Score scenario versus the No Goal alternative (25%).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I model expected goals using xG: Polonia has xG_for 1.68 at home, Chrobry xG_for 1.59 away, and xG_against of 1.61 (Polonia) and 1.47 (Chrobry); that yields expected goals of 1.58 for Polonia and 1.60 for Chrobry, totaling 3.18. This season Polonia records Over 1.5 in 87% of home matches, Chrobry in 71% of away matches; after accounting for the league home advantage (~18%) I estimate an 83% chance of Over 1.5. For the 2.5 line, the home side has Over 2.5 in 60% of games, the away side in 43%, giving roughly a 53% probability with an expected total of 3.18; this indicates a moderately strong signal for Over 2.5. Over 3.5 is unlikely: 7% (Polonia) vs 14% (Chrobry) this season, yielding about a 10% chance, so Under 3.5 is dominant. Additionally both teams have BTTS rates of 60% (Polonia) and 50% (Chrobry), which supports a both-teams-to-score scenario and the validity of an Over 2.5 bet.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal is 2/2 — Chrobry leads at the break and wins the match. In the last five fixtures the away side led at half-time in 60% of cases, and season-long they lead at the break in 36% of matches, which averages to roughly a 48% chance of HT=2. Over the season Chrobry wins 50% of matches and has an average xG of 1.59 versus an xG against of 1.47, so away leads have a statistical basis and often translate into victory. Polonia, however, is stronger after the break — the home team scores on average 0.93 goals in the second half and in this part of the season collects an average of 1.8 points — therefore the model also accounts for a significant probability of a turnaround (2/1 15% and X/1 10%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Polonia Warszawa | Chrobry Głogów | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Chrobry Głogów is 75% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Polonia Warszawa · 1.4 pts / match - Chrobry Głogów
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Polonia Warszawa is 10% better for: goals scored per match.
1.55 goals / match - Polonia Warszawa · 1.41 goals / match - Chrobry Głogów
Chrobry Głogów is 53% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.48 goals / match - Polonia Warszawa · 0.97 goals / match - Chrobry Głogów
Polonia Warszawa scores in 83% of matches (24 of 29 matches), while Chrobry Głogów keeps a clean sheet in 31% (9 of 29 matches).
Chrobry Głogów scores in 83% of matches (24 of 29 matches), while Polonia Warszawa keeps a clean sheet in 17% (5 of 29 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Polonia Warszawa
Over / Under - Chrobry Głogów
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Polonia Warszawa - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 41%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Chrobry Głogów - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 34% of matches and wins 48%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Polonia Warszawa
Chrobry Głogów
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (1. Liga).
Teams vs league
| Polonia Warszawa | Liga | Chrobry Głogów | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 3.03 | 2.95 | ▼ 2.38 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 72% | 65% | ▼ 55% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 59% | 60% | ▼ 52% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 17% | 20% | ▲ 31% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 72% | 74% | ▼ 66% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 83% | 80% | ▼ 69% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Polonia Warszawa 0 - 0 - 1 Chrobry Głogów. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Polonia Warszawa vs Chrobry Głogów?
The 1. Liga match finished Polonia Warszawa 1:0 Chrobry Głogów. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Polonia Warszawa vs Chrobry Głogów?
Polonia Warszawa score 1.55 goals per game on average and Chrobry Głogów 1.41. The 1. Liga average is 2.95 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 60% of games. Both teams score in 72% of Polonia Warszawa's matches and 55% of Chrobry Głogów's.
What form are Polonia Warszawa and Chrobry Głogów in?
Over the last 5 games Polonia Warszawa have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Chrobry Głogów 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Polonia Warszawa vs Chrobry Głogów?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.