Polonia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec: match statistics
Polonia Warszawa are in excellent form, winning four of their last five matches and averaging 2.6 points per game. The hosts have a solid home record with a 44% win rate and a favourable xG differential (1.73 vs 1.39), indicating a qualitative advantage in attack. Stal Mielec are in a dire situation, sitting in 16th place with just 0.4 points per game in their last five matches and a catastrophic away record (67% losses). The visitors concede an average of 2.33 goals away from home, while scoring only 1.22 goals, making them highly susceptible to defeats. The disparity in form, quality of play, and home/away statistics unequivocally point to a certain victory for Polonia Warszawa.
Polonia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Polonia Warszawa played Stal Mielec in 1. Liga (Poland). The match was played on 8 February 2026. Final score: 5:2.
Current form
Polonia Warszawa: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match. Stal Mielec: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Polonia Warszawa scores 1.53 and concedes 1.42 goals per match. Stal Mielec scores 1.11 and concedes 2.11. League average: 3.04 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Polonia Warszawa 79%, Stal Mielec 68%. Over 2.5: Polonia Warszawa 58%, Stal Mielec 68%. League level: BTTS 65%, Over 2.5 63%.
xG, shots and style
Polonia Warszawa has higher xG: 1.62 vs 1.45. Polonia Warszawa: 13.6 shots per match, Stal Mielec: 12.5.
Match halves
Polonia Warszawa: half-time lead 42%, second-half goals 0.79. Stal Mielec: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.74.
Goals by minute
Polonia Warszawa: 0-15 (5 goals). Stal Mielec: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
1. Liga: 3.04 goals per match, BTTS 65%, Over 2.5 63%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Polonia Warszawa are in excellent form, winning four of their last five matches and averaging 2.6 points per game. The hosts have a solid home record with a 44% win rate and a favourable xG differential (1.73 vs 1.39), indicating a qualitative advantage in attack. Stal Mielec are in a dire situation, sitting in 16th place with just 0.4 points per game in their last five matches and a catastrophic away record (67% losses). The visitors concede an average of 2.33 goals away from home, while scoring only 1.22 goals, making them highly susceptible to defeats. The disparity in form, quality of play, and home/away statistics unequivocally point to a certain victory for Polonia Warszawa.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Polonia Warszawa | Stal Mielec | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 26% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Polonia Warszawa is 550% better for: last-5 form.
2.6 pts / match - Polonia Warszawa · 0.4 pts / match - Stal Mielec
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Polonia Warszawa is 38% better for: goals scored per match.
1.53 goals / match - Polonia Warszawa · 1.11 goals / match - Stal Mielec
Polonia Warszawa is 49% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.42 goals / match - Polonia Warszawa · 2.11 goals / match - Stal Mielec
Polonia Warszawa scores in 89% of matches (17 of 19 matches), while Stal Mielec keeps a clean sheet in 11% (2 of 19 matches).
Stal Mielec scores in 74% of matches (14 of 19 matches), while Polonia Warszawa keeps a clean sheet in 16% (3 of 19 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Polonia Warszawa
Over / Under - Stal Mielec
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Polonia Warszawa is 88% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.58 pts / match - Polonia Warszawa · 0.84 pts / match - Stal Mielec
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Polonia Warszawa - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 42% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Stal Mielec - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 16%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -6 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Polonia Warszawa
Stal Mielec
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (1. Liga).
Teams vs league
| Polonia Warszawa | Liga | Stal Mielec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.95 | 3.04 | ▲ 3.21 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 79% | 65% | ▲ 68% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 58% | 63% | ▲ 68% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 16% | 20% | ▼ 11% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 79% | 77% | ▲ 84% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 84% | 78% | • 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Polonia Warszawa 1 - 0 - 0 Stal Mielec. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Polonia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec?
The 1. Liga match finished Polonia Warszawa 5:2 Stal Mielec. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Polonia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec?
Polonia Warszawa score 1.53 goals per game on average and Stal Mielec 1.11. The 1. Liga average is 3.04 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 79% of Polonia Warszawa's matches and 68% of Stal Mielec's.
What form are Polonia Warszawa and Stal Mielec in?
Over the last 5 games Polonia Warszawa have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and Stal Mielec 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Polonia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.