Ponte Preta vs Sport Recife: match statistics
Ponte Preta vs Sport Recife: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ponte Preta played Sport Recife in Serie B (Brazil). The match was played on 9 May 2026. Final score: 1:3.
Current form
Ponte Preta: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Sport Recife: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ponte Preta scores 0.71 and concedes 1.29 goals per match. Sport Recife scores 1.14 and concedes 0.57. League average: 2.18 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ponte Preta 43%, Sport Recife 43%. Over 2.5: Ponte Preta 43%, Sport Recife 29%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 42%.
xG, shots and style
Sport Recife has higher xG: 1.38 vs 1.24. Ponte Preta: 10.4 shots per match, Sport Recife: 13.1.
Match halves
Ponte Preta: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 0.29. Sport Recife: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Ponte Preta: 31-45+ (3 goals). Sport Recife: 76-90+ (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie B: 2.18 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 42%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I predict a draw because both teams display low offensive efficiency — Ponte Preta averages 0.67 goals per home match, while Sport Recife also averages 0.67 goals as visitors. The home side generates more chances (on average 12 shots and 4.33 on target with xG 1.41 in home games) whereas the visitors have 11.67 shots, 1.67 on target and xG 1.11 on the road, giving Ponte Preta a slight advantage in chance quality. Defensively the edge is with the visitors: Sport concedes only 0.33 goals away and keeps a clean sheet in 67% of away matches, and has not yet lost on the road this season (0% losses). Additionally, over the last 5 matches Sport averages 2.0 points versus 1.2 for Ponte Preta, and Sport’s high share of away draws (67%) increases the likelihood of a low-scoring point split. For these reasons I assign probabilities of 35% for the home win, 40% for the draw and 25% for the away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Form and clean sheets favor No BTTS: Sport Recife has 67% clean sheets this season and 0% BTTS in the last 5 matches, while Ponte Preta has only 20% BTTS in their last 5. Seasonal averages show Ponte Preta scoring 1.5 goals with xG 1.58, and Sport Recife scoring 0.67 goals with xG 1.11, but the visitors concede only 0.33 goals seasonally (0.4 on average in the last 5), indicating an effective defense despite conceded xG. Additionally, the league has 61% clean sheets and a seasonal BTTS rate of 51%, with individual seasonal BTTS at 50% (home) and 33% (away), which together suggest under a 50% chance of both teams scoring. Ponte Preta averages more shots (14.25) and 6.75 shots on target with an 11% conversion, so they are the primary candidate to score, whereas Sport Recife limits opponents’ shots on target (only 1.67) and often keeps a clean sheet. As a result I assign a 72% probability to No BTTS and 28% to BTTS - Yes, therefore I recommend a 'No' bet.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG-based estimate: home xG is 1.58 while away xG_allowed is 1.46, yielding an expected 1.52 goals for Ponte Preta; conversely Sport Recife attack xG 1.11 vs Ponte Preta defense xG_against 1.35 gives 1.23 for the visitors, total 2.75. Applying a Poisson distribution with λ=2.75 produces probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈76%, Over 2.5 ≈52% and Over 3.5 ≈30%. The hosts average 14.25 shots and 6.75 on target with an 11% conversion, supporting their higher expected goal output; the visitors register only 1.67 shots on target and score 0.67 goals on average this season, though their xG 1.11 indicates some attacking potential. Historically Ponte Preta have 75% of matches with over 1.5 goals, while Sport Recife keep a clean sheet in 67% of games, which suppresses the chances of very high totals (>3.5). Consequently the strongest signal is a bet on Over 1.5 (over) at ~76% probability; Over 2.5 is only slightly favored (~52%) and carries greater risk.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
At half-time the most likely outcome is a draw: Ponte Preta did not hold a lead at the break in 4 of 4 of their matches (0% leads at the break, 4 half-time draws), while Sport Recife had a half-time draw in 67% of fixtures, so the signal for a draw at the break is strong. After the break the favorite is Ponte Preta — they average 1.25 goals in the second half and have 100% of matches with at least one second-half goal, which suggests a high chance of a turnaround in their favor after the interval. The home side’s attack looks superior statistically: xG 1.58 versus 1.11 for Sport, 6.75 shots on target vs 1.67 and higher conversion 11% vs 6%, and over the season Ponte Preta collect 2.0 points per match versus 1.67 for the visitors. Considering the dominant draw-at-halftime signal combined with a clear home advantage after the break, the safest HT/FT selection is a draw at half-time and a Ponte Preta win after 90 minutes (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ponte Preta | Sport Recife | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Sport Recife is 83% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Ponte Preta · 2.2 pts / match - Sport Recife
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Sport Recife is 61% better for: goals scored per match.
0.71 goals / match - Ponte Preta · 1.14 goals / match - Sport Recife
Sport Recife is 126% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.29 goals / match - Ponte Preta · 0.57 goals / match - Sport Recife
Ponte Preta scores in 57% of matches (4 of 7 matches), while Sport Recife keeps a clean sheet in 57% (4 of 7 matches).
Sport Recife scores in 71% of matches (5 of 7 matches), while Ponte Preta keeps a clean sheet in 14% (1 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ponte Preta
Over / Under - Sport Recife
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ponte Preta - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Sport Recife - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (3 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ponte Preta
Sport Recife
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie B).
Teams vs league
| Ponte Preta | Liga | Sport Recife | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.00 | 2.18 | ▼ 1.71 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 43% | 50% | ▼ 43% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 43% | 42% | ▼ 29% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 14% | 32% | ▲ 57% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 71% | 57% | ▼ 29% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 57% | 75% | ▼ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Ponte Preta vs Sport Recife?
The Serie B match finished Ponte Preta 1:3 Sport Recife. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Ponte Preta vs Sport Recife?
Ponte Preta score 0.71 goals per game on average and Sport Recife 1.14. The Serie B average is 2.18 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 42% of games. Both teams score in 43% of Ponte Preta's matches and 43% of Sport Recife's.
What form are Ponte Preta and Sport Recife in?
Over the last 5 games Ponte Preta have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Sport Recife 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ponte Preta vs Sport Recife?
The statistical background for Ponte Preta vs Sport Recife — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.