Ponte Preta vs Vila Nova: match statistics
Ponte Preta vs Vila Nova: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ponte Preta played Vila Nova in Serie B (Brazil). The match was played on 11 April 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Ponte Preta: 0-1-2, 0.33 points/match. Vila Nova: 1-2-0, 1.67 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ponte Preta scores 0.67 and concedes 1.33 goals per match. Vila Nova scores 1.67 and concedes 1.33. League average: 2.13 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ponte Preta 67%, Vila Nova 100%. Over 2.5: Ponte Preta 33%, Vila Nova 67%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 41%.
xG, shots and style
Vila Nova has higher xG: 1.40 vs 1.05. Ponte Preta: 7.7 shots per match, Vila Nova: 13.7.
Match halves
Ponte Preta: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.33. Vila Nova: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 1.67.
Goals by minute
Ponte Preta: 31-45+ (1 goals). Vila Nova: 46-60 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie B: 2.13 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 41%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Vila Nova holds a statistical edge: their average xG is 1.48 versus Ponte Preta's 1.26, and in the last 5 matches the visitors average 1.4 points per game (1 win and 4 draws) compared to 0.8 points for the hosts (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses). Both teams score on average 1 goal per match and concede 1 goal on average, but defensively Vila Nova looks better — their average xG against is 1.28, while Ponte Preta concedes xG against of 1.51. Ponte Preta is more accurate though: on average 9 shots with 5 on target and an 11% conversion, whereas Vila Nova attempts 16 shots with only 2 on target and a 6% conversion, which may limit the visitors' effectiveness. Considering the higher xG for the visitors and the better points average in the last five games (1.4 vs 0.8), I predict a narrow Vila Nova victory, though the match should remain balanced and low-scoring.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes because both teams present a season-long BTTS rate of 100% (Ponte Preta 100% and Vila Nova 100%) and neither has registered a clean sheet this season (0% clean sheets for both), which is the strongest indicator for Goal/Goal. In terms of chance creation, average xG are 1.36 for the home side and 1.48 for the visitors, while xG against is 1.38 (Ponte Preta) and 1.28 (Vila Nova), so both teams both create and concede chances. In the last 5 matches Vila Nova shows 80% BTTS and has scored 6 goals with an average attacking xG of 1.47, whereas Ponte Preta has 40% BTTS and 3 goals in five matches with a recent attacking xG of 1.01 — this suggests greater recent efficiency from the visitors and that the hosts have been more likely to concede recently (recent xG against 1.69). Although season averages indicate Ponte Preta scores 2.0 goals per game versus Vila Nova’s 1.0 and has superior shot conversion (16% vs 6%), the overall picture (both teams 100% BTTS, 0% clean sheets, and recent xG trends) favors both teams finding the net. Therefore I assign a 75% probability to BTTS - Yes and 25% to No Goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Expected goals are approximately 1.32 for Ponte Preta and 1.43 for Vila Nova (total 2.75), calculated as the average of the team’s attacking xG and the opponent’s defending xG (home attack xG 1.36 vs away defense xG 1.28; away attack xG 1.48 vs home defense xG 1.38). A total of 2.75 corresponds to roughly a 76% probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), about 52% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and around 30% for 4+ goals (Over 3.5) according to a Poisson distribution model. Season statistics reinforce this signal: both teams have 100% of matches with both teams to score (BTTS 100%) and 100% of matches with over 1.5 goals; however Ponte Preta has 100% of matches Over 2.5 this season while Vila Nova has 0%, which explains moderate uncertainty for Over 2.5. Additionally, Ponte Preta posts a high shot conversion of 16% with an average of 4.5 shots on target, whereas Vila Nova averages 2.0 shots on target and a 6% conversion, increasing the likelihood of home goals and making Over 1.5 the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Ponte Preta victory at full-time (X/1). In their last five matches Ponte Preta were level at the break in 80% of cases, while Vila Nova were level at the break in 60%, which strongly supports a draw HT. After the break the hosts average 2.0 goals scored (scored_2hg_avg_home = 2.0) and have a 100% win rate in second halves (wins_2hg_percentage_home = 100.0), with an average of 2.5 goals in second halves (AVG_2hg_home = 2.5), so they have the potential to turn the tie around. Technically the visitors have a slightly higher xG (1.48 vs 1.36), but Ponte Preta convert chances better (16.0% vs 6.0%) and register more shots on target (4.5 vs 2.0); therefore, after a HT draw I assign a higher probability to the hosts winning than to a split of the points.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ponte Preta | Vila Nova | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 52% | 27% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.17 | 0.46 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Vila Nova is 406% better for: last-5 form.
0.33 pts / match - Ponte Preta · 1.67 pts / match - Vila Nova
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Vila Nova is 149% better for: goals scored per match.
0.67 goals / match - Ponte Preta · 1.67 goals / match - Vila Nova
Ponte Preta scores in 67% of matches (2 of 3 matches), while Vila Nova keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 3 matches).
Vila Nova scores in 100% of matches (3 of 3 matches), while Ponte Preta keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 3 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ponte Preta
Over / Under - Vila Nova
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ponte Preta is 103% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.67 pts / match - Ponte Preta · 0.33 pts / match - Vila Nova
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ponte Preta - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Vila Nova - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 33% | 67% |
| 2 goals | 33% | 33% |
| 3 goals | 33% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 67% | 33% |
| No goal | 67% | 67% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.33 | 2.33 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Average goals in match | 0.7 | 2.3 |
| 1 goal | 67% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 33% |
| Clean sheet | 33% | 33% |
| No goal | 100% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (1 goal). Concedes most in 76-90 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (2 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ponte Preta
Vila Nova
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie B).
Teams vs league
| Ponte Preta | Liga | Vila Nova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.00 | 2.13 | ▲ 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 56% | ▲ 100% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 33% | 41% | ▲ 67% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 28% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 33% | 59% | ▲ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 78% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Ponte Preta vs Vila Nova?
The Serie B match finished Ponte Preta 0:1 Vila Nova. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Ponte Preta vs Vila Nova?
Ponte Preta score 0.67 goals per game on average and Vila Nova 1.67. The Serie B average is 2.13 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 41% of games. Both teams score in 67% of Ponte Preta's matches and 100% of Vila Nova's.
What form are Ponte Preta and Vila Nova in?
Over the last 5 games Ponte Preta have a 0-1-2 record (0.33 points per game) and Vila Nova 1-2-0 (1.67 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ponte Preta vs Vila Nova?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Ponte Preta vs Vila Nova: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.