Portland Timbers II vs St. Louis City II: match statistics

Portland Timbers II sit 2nd, while St. Louis City II are 13th, and the hosts also boast the better season record: 14 wins and just 4 defeats compared with their opponents’ 10 wins and 7 losses. Both teams have remained unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws apiece, but Portland have conceded only 3 goals during that run, compared with 4 conceded by St. Louis. At home, Timbers II create significantly more chances, averaging 17.08 shots and an xG of 1.94, while the visitors average 11.69 shots and an xG of 1.45 away from home. Portland’s home defence concedes an average of 1.08 goals and keeps a clean sheet in 46% of matches, whereas St. Louis concede 1.54 goals per away game. The hosts’ high home draw rate of 46% limits confidence in the pick, but their superior chance creation and more solid defence point towards a narrow Portland victory.

Both teams record BTTS at 62%, almost identical to the league average of 63%, providing a solid foundation for goals at both ends. Portland score an average of 1.85 goals at home and generate an xG of 1.78, while St. Louis concede an average of 1.54 goals away from home with an xG against of 1.48. The visitors score an average of 1.31 goals and create an xG of 1.45, while Portland’s defence allows 1.31 goals per match, making a goal from St. Louis a realistic possibility as well. Caution is warranted due to Portland’s last five matches, in which BTTS occurred in only 40% of games, with the team conceding just 0.6 goals per match. Despite both defences showing improvement in their short-term form, the season-long attacking figures—5.92 shots on target for Portland and 4.0 for St. Louis—slightly favour the BTTS - Yes scenario.

Portland average 1.85 goals at home, while St. Louis City II concede 1.54 away from home, giving the hosts a clear basis for scoring at least once. The visitors average 1.31 goals per away match, while Portland concede an average of 1.31, so their contribution to the scoreline is also realistic. The 1.5 line has been covered in 100% of Portland’s matches and 85% of St. Louis City II’s fixtures, while both teams have 62% of matches with goals scored by both sides. However, the last five games have seen both teams show more solid defensive form, conceding 0.6 and 0.8 goals per match respectively, so Over 2.5 goals holds only a moderate edge. The strongest signal remains Over 1.5 goals, supported by a projected 2.80 goals and a high frequency of matches going over this line.

Portland Timbers II have greater attacking potential: they average 1.85 goals with an xG of 1.78, while St. Louis City II average 1.31 goals and an xG of 1.45. The hosts also record an average of 15.0 shots, including 5.92 on target, compared with the visitors’ 11.69 attempts and 4.0 shots on target. Portland held the lead at the break in 31% of matches, while St. Louis did so in only 23%; both teams were level at half-time in as many as 46% of their games, suggesting a closely contested first half. After the interval, Portland’s advantage increases: they average 1.15 goals and win the second half in 46% of matches, whereas the visitors score 0.77 goals and win the second half in 31%. The 1/1 pick is the most likely outcome, as the hosts possess superior chance-creation quality and a more favourable record both in the opening phase and, especially, in the closing stages of the match.