Portland Timbers II vs Tacoma Defiance: match statistics
Portland Timbers II vs Tacoma Defiance: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Portland Timbers II played Tacoma Defiance in MLS Next Pro (United States). The match was played on 31 May 2026. Venue: Providence Park. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Portland Timbers II: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Tacoma Defiance: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Portland Timbers II scores 1.27 and concedes 1.36 goals per match. Tacoma Defiance scores 1.08 and concedes 1.50. League average: 3.22 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Portland Timbers II 36%, Tacoma Defiance 42%. Over 2.5: Portland Timbers II 64%, Tacoma Defiance 58%. League level: BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 66%.
xG, shots and style
Portland Timbers II has higher xG: 1.89 vs 1.37. Portland Timbers II: 16.3 shots per match, Tacoma Defiance: 11.8.
Match halves
Portland Timbers II: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 1.00. Tacoma Defiance: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.67.
Goals by minute
Portland Timbers II: 46-60 (4 goals). Tacoma Defiance: 46-60 (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
MLS Next Pro: 3.22 goals per match, BTTS 62%, Over 2.5 66%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 3-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Portland Timbers II have a clear edge in chance creation — at home they generate 2.19 xG, attempt 19.14 shots and 7.43 shots on target per match, whereas Tacoma Defiance away produce only 1.22 xG, 11.2 shots and 2.4 shots on target. Both teams scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches, but the difference in game organization is visible in defense: Portland concedes 1.43 goals per home match on average, while Tacoma concedes 2.2 on the road. Although Portland have a low shooting conversion rate at home (7%) and fail to score in 43% of games, explaining a high home draw rate (57%), the elevated xG indicates they will create more clear-cut chances. Tacoma suffer 60% losses away and only 20% wins on the road, which reduces their chances of taking full points. Considering the superiority in quality of chances (2.19 vs 1.22 xG, 7.43 vs 2.4 shots on target) and the visitors’ weaker defense (2.2 goals conceded away), I favor a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal BTTS rates are 43% for Portland and 40% for Tacoma, and in the last 5 matches both teams produced BTTS at 40%, well below the league average of 62%. Portland averages 4.86 KRs (shots on target) and has a seasonal xG of 1.47, while Tacoma has only 2.4 shots on target and a seasonal xG of 1.22, indicating the home side’s greater ability to create chances. Goal stats show seasonal averages of 1.14 goals scored and 1.0 conceded for Portland, and 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded for Tacoma, meaning the visitors concede more but score little themselves. In the last 5 matches both teams averaged 1.8 goals each, and Portland’s recent xG_for is 2.1 versus Tacoma’s xG_against 1.62, which increases the home side’s chance of scoring, but does not translate into a strong signal for both teams to score. Based on this, I tip No BTTS (no) at 62% versus 38% for Yes (BTTS - Yes).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model projects a total of 2.91 expected goals (home xG 1.56 vs away xG 1.35), which in a simple Poisson distribution translates to roughly a 79% chance of at least 2 goals in the match (over 1.5). Tacoma Defiance have 100% of their season’s matches over 1.5 goals and concede on average 2.2 goals per game, increasing the likelihood of both teams scoring. Portland at home averages 4.86 shots on target and 12.14 shots per game and has an xG of 2.1 with 9 goals scored in the last 5 matches (avg. 1.8), suggesting offensive pressure from the hosts. Over 2.5 is moderately likely (model estimates about 56%), and over 3.5 only around 33%, so 2.5 and 3.5 carry a weaker signal than 1.5. Therefore I recommend betting the over 1.5 as the optimal line: highest probability (79%) supported by xG 1.56/1.35, shooting statistics and the fact the visitors have 100% of season matches over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Half-Time statistics indicate a draw: Portland are tied at the break in 43% of matches, while Tacoma are level at halftime in 80%, with average goals scored by halftime 0.57 (home) versus 0.20 (away). In the second half Portland have the advantage — their average xG is 1.47 compared to 1.22 for the visitors, and average shots on target are 4.86 vs 2.40, which increases the home side’s chances of a turnaround. Tacoma concede on average 2.2 goals per match versus 1.0 conceded by Portland, and decisive strikes frequently occur after the break (over 0.5 in the second half: 71% for Portland and 100% for Tacoma). Combined with Portland’s better points average (1.14 pts vs 0.8 pts for Tacoma), the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win after 90 minutes (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Portland Timbers II | Tacoma Defiance | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Portland Timbers II is 18% better for: goals scored per match.
1.27 goals / match - Portland Timbers II · 1.08 goals / match - Tacoma Defiance
Portland Timbers II is 10% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.36 goals / match - Portland Timbers II · 1.5 goals / match - Tacoma Defiance
Portland Timbers II scores in 64% of matches (7 of 11 matches), while Tacoma Defiance keeps a clean sheet in 25% (3 of 12 matches).
Tacoma Defiance scores in 58% of matches (7 of 12 matches), while Portland Timbers II keeps a clean sheet in 45% (5 of 11 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Portland Timbers II
Over / Under - Tacoma Defiance
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tacoma Defiance is 19% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.91 pts / match - Portland Timbers II · 1.08 pts / match - Tacoma Defiance
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Portland Timbers II - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 45%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Tacoma Defiance - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (4 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (4 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Portland Timbers II
Tacoma Defiance
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (MLS Next Pro).
Teams vs league
| Portland Timbers II | Liga | Tacoma Defiance | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.64 | 3.22 | ▼ 2.58 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 36% | 62% | ▼ 42% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 64% | 66% | ▼ 58% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 45% | 21% | ▲ 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 64% | 76% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 73% | 84% | • 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Portland Timbers II 3 - 0 - 0 Tacoma Defiance. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Portland Timbers II vs Tacoma Defiance?
The MLS Next Pro match finished Portland Timbers II 1:0 Tacoma Defiance. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Portland Timbers II and Tacoma Defiance?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Portland Timbers II won 3, Tacoma Defiance won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Portland Timbers II vs Tacoma Defiance?
Portland Timbers II score 1.27 goals per game on average and Tacoma Defiance 1.08. The MLS Next Pro average is 3.22 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 66% of games. Both teams score in 36% of Portland Timbers II's matches and 42% of Tacoma Defiance's.
What form are Portland Timbers II and Tacoma Defiance in?
Over the last 5 games Portland Timbers II have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Tacoma Defiance 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Portland Timbers II vs Tacoma Defiance?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.