Portsmouth vs Derby County: match statistics

Portsmouth have a slight edge in chance creation at home: their average xG stands at 1.98 compared with Derby’s 1.57 away from home, while the hosts also average 17 shots and 6 on target per match, compared with 15 and 4 for their opponents. Derby are on a significantly weaker trend, having lost 4 of their last 5 matches and collected just 0.2 points per game during that period, while Portsmouth averaged 1 point. However, both defences leave plenty of space for opponents: Portsmouth concede an average of 3 goals at home, while Derby concede 2 away, with xG against figures of 1.52 and 1.55 respectively. The hosts have yet to keep a clean sheet at home, but Derby also lost their only away match so far, so Portsmouth’s greater attacking output should tip the balance in their favour.

BTTS - Yes is supported by the complete seasonal data: Portsmouth and Derby County have seen both teams score in 100% of their matches, and neither side has kept a clean sheet. Portsmouth score an average of 2.0 goals but also concede 2.0, while Derby score 1.0 goal and allow opponents 2.0 goals. In their last five matches, both teams have scored 6 goals each, while the hosts have conceded 8 and the visitors as many as 10, clearly favouring goals at both ends. Their attacking potential is confirmed by xG figures of 1.45 for Portsmouth and 1.61 for Derby, while their opponents have created chances worth 1.44 and 1.67 xG against them, respectively. Even with Derby’s weaker form, its BTTS rate from the last five matches stands at 100%, compared with 80% for Portsmouth, making it more likely that neither defence will keep a clean sheet.

The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have exceeded this line in every match played so far this season, and neither Portsmouth nor Derby have kept a clean sheet. The hosts’ average xG is 1.80, while Derby allow opponents 1.55 xG; meanwhile, the visitors create an average of 1.57 xG, with Portsmouth conceding 1.88 xG. In their last five matches, both teams scored 1.2 goals per game, but Portsmouth conceded 1.6, while Derby conceded as many as 2.0 goals, supporting a scenario with at least two goals. Over 2.5 goals also has a strong statistical basis, as Derby went over this line in 5 of their last 5 matches, but the projected 3.15 goals provide a greater safety margin for Over 1.5.

The strongest scenario points to Derby leading at the break, but Portsmouth winning after the final whistle. Derby were ahead at half-time in 50% of their last five matches, while Portsmouth were trailing at the break in 40% of theirs. However, the visitors are in very poor form in terms of results: they have not won any of their last five matches, lost 80% of them, and conceded an average of 2.0 goals. Portsmouth are creating better attacking quality, with an xG of 1.80 compared with Derby’s 1.57, while also averaging 7 shots on target against 4 for their opponents and recording a conversion rate of 13% compared with 7%. In addition, second-half data shows that the hosts scored an average of 1 goal and conceded none, whereas Derby conceded an average of 2 goals, clearly supporting a turnaround after the break.