Portsmouth vs Sheffield United: match statistics

Portsmouth hold a slight edge thanks to creating more chances at home: they average 18.75 shots per match and post an xG of 1.92, while Sheffield United average 8.25 shots and an xG of 1.01 away from home. However, the hosts score just 1.25 goals per home match, with a shooting accuracy of 7%, so they are not making the most of their chances. Both defences give opponents opportunities: Portsmouth concede an average of 1.75 goals at home, while the visitors allow opponents chances worth an xG of 1.82. In their last five matches, the hosts have scored 5 goals and suffered 2 defeats, while Sheffield United have scored 4 goals and lost 4 times. Portsmouth’s advantage in chance creation and the visitors’ poorer recent form point towards a home win, although the hosts’ lack of clinical finishing keeps the possibility of a draw firmly in play.

BTTS - Yes landed in 50% of Portsmouth matches and 75% of Sheffield United matches, giving a moderate edge to the scenario in which both teams score. Portsmouth concede an average of 1.5 goals per match, while Sheffield United concede 1.25, so both defences allow their opponents opportunities to score. The hosts’ chances are boosted by the fact that the visitors have conceded an average of 1.6 goals over their last 5 matches, with an xG conceded of 1.70. Sheffield United, meanwhile, score an average of 1.25 goals per match, although their return over the last 5 games has fallen to 0.8 goals per match. The risk attached to BTTS - Yes is also increased by Portsmouth failing to score in 50% of their matches, so the edge for this pick remains slight.

Portsmouth average 1.0 goals at home, while Sheffield United average 1.25 away, pointing to a moderate scoring output from both sides. Their average xG in these conditions is similar, at 1.03 and 1.01 respectively, although their defences allow opponents chances worth 1.70 and 1.82 xG. Over their last five matches, Portsmouth averaged 1.0 goals and Sheffield United 0.8, so their recent struggles in front of goal limit the potential for a high-scoring game. Fewer than 4 goals were scored in 50% of Portsmouth’s home matches and 75% of Sheffield United’s away matches. Therefore, with a projected total of 2.55 goals, Under 3.5 goals is the safest pick, although the defensive figures mean it is not without risk.

A draw at half-time is a strong starting point: both teams went into the break level in 3 of their 4 matches, while this occurred twice for Portsmouth and three times for Sheffield United across their last five games. The second half favours the hosts, as they averaged 0.6 goals after the break in their last five matches, while the visitors scored just 0.2 and conceded 1.0. Sheffield United lost the second half in 4 of those 5 matches and suffered 4 defeats overall, increasing the likelihood that they will not hold on to the draw. Portsmouth's advantage is not substantial, however—the teams' average xG figures are similar at 1.03 and 1.01—so X/1 is the most likely HT/FT outcome, although X/X remains a significant alternative.