Preston North End vs Blackburn Rovers: match statistics

Blackburn Rovers enter the match with a clearly superior return from their last five games: they have collected 7 points, while Preston have managed just 1. The hosts have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and conceded as many as 11 goals during that run, while in their only home game so far they have conceded an average of 3 goals per match. Away from home, Blackburn score an average of 2 goals, record 5 shots on target per game and convert 20% of their attempts, compared with Preston’s efficiency of just 8%. Although the two teams’ xG figures are almost identical—1.24 for the visitors versus 1.23 for the hosts—Preston allow opponents chances worth an average of 1.66 xG and have yet to keep a clean sheet. The hosts’ defensive problems and Blackburn’s greater attacking efficiency point towards an away win, although their draw in their only away match increases the risk of the points being shared.

The BTTS signal is clear, as the current data for both teams shows that 100% of their matches have featured goals from both sides, while neither team has kept a clean sheet. Blackburn score an average of 2.0 goals per match, while Preston average 1.5, and they concede 2.0 and 1.5 goals respectively. Both defences also allow opponents high-quality chances: the average xG against Preston is 2.07, while against Blackburn it is 1.82. Preston’s recent form lowers confidence in the pick, as they have scored only 0.6 goals per game across their last five matches, but their opponents have conceded 1.6 goals during this period and recorded 1.92 in conceded xG. Blackburn have recorded BTTS in 100% of their last five matches, making the outcome in which both teams find the net more likely. Therefore, BTTS - Yes is the preferred pick.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as both teams have gone above this line in 100% of their league matches so far, and neither has kept a clean sheet. Preston have conceded an average of 2.2 goals in their last five matches, while Blackburn have scored 1.6 goals per game during that period, which supports the visitors’ attacking output. The hosts create an average of 1.13 xG, but Blackburn’s defence allows an average of 1.82 xG, making a Preston goal a realistic scenario as well. Blackburn average 5.0 shots on target compared with Preston’s 3.5, while their shot conversion rates stand at 20% and 17%, respectively, supporting a forecast of 3.00 total goals. The Over 2.5 line also has positive indicators, but Preston’s weaker recent scoring form, with just 0.6 goals per game across their last five appearances, makes Over 1.5 the safer choice.

Blackburn are in clearly better recent form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 1.6 goals and collected 1.4 points per game, while Preston have scored just 0.6 goals and earned 0.2 points per match. The hosts have lost four of their last five games and were behind at half-time in 80% of those matches, which supports a scenario in which the visitors lead at the break. During this period, Preston conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game, whereas Blackburn averaged 5 shots on target compared with their opponents’ 3.5 and posted a higher attacking xG, 1.24 to 1.13. After the break, Blackburn have recently averaged 1.4 goals, while Preston have conceded 1.2, making it most likely that the visitors will maintain their advantage through to the final whistle. Therefore, the preferred HT/FT outcome is X/2.