Preston North End vs Millwall: match statistics
Statistical analysis points to even chances for both teams, favoring a draw. Preston North End displays solid home form with a 41% win rate and a positive goal difference (+4), though their recent form has been weaker (1.2 pts/game). Millwall sits high in 3rd place with better overall form (2.0 pts/game in the last 5 matches) and an impressive away win rate of 44%. Both teams are characterized by similar xG figures (around 1.3) and average goals per match (approx. 2.35-2.38), suggesting a balanced level of offense and defense. Preston's high draw percentage at home (35%) and the close possession statistics (45-46%) further support a point-splitting scenario. Considering all factors, a draw appears the most likely outcome of this encounter.
Preston North End vs Millwall: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Preston North End played Millwall in Championship (England). The match was played on 28 February 2026. Final score: 0:2.
Current form
Preston North End: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Millwall: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Preston North End scores 1.21 and concedes 1.12 goals per match. Millwall scores 1.32 and concedes 1.18. League average: 2.60 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Preston North End 56%, Millwall 47%. Over 2.5: Preston North End 41%, Millwall 50%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
Millwall has higher xG: 1.45 vs 1.25. Preston North End: 10.8 shots per match, Millwall: 12.7.
Match halves
Preston North End: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.65. Millwall: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.79.
Goals by minute
Preston North End: 76-90+ (11 goals). Millwall: 76-90+ (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Championship: 2.60 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis points to even chances for both teams, favoring a draw. Preston North End displays solid home form with a 41% win rate and a positive goal difference (+4), though their recent form has been weaker (1.2 pts/game). Millwall sits high in 3rd place with better overall form (2.0 pts/game in the last 5 matches) and an impressive away win rate of 44%. Both teams are characterized by similar xG figures (around 1.3) and average goals per match (approx. 2.35-2.38), suggesting a balanced level of offense and defense. Preston's high draw percentage at home (35%) and the close possession statistics (45-46%) further support a point-splitting scenario. Considering all factors, a draw appears the most likely outcome of this encounter.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Preston North End | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Millwall is 67% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Preston North End · 2 pts / match - Millwall
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Millwall is 9% better for: goals scored per match.
1.21 goals / match - Preston North End · 1.32 goals / match - Millwall
Preston North End is 5% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.12 goals / match - Preston North End · 1.18 goals / match - Millwall
Preston North End scores in 76% of matches (26 of 34 matches), while Millwall keeps a clean sheet in 38% (13 of 34 matches).
Millwall scores in 79% of matches (27 of 34 matches), while Preston North End keeps a clean sheet in 26% (9 of 34 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Preston North End
Over / Under - Millwall
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Preston North End - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 35%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Millwall - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Preston North End
Millwall
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Championship).
Teams vs league
| Preston North End | Liga | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.32 | 2.60 | ▼ 2.50 |
| Both teams scored | • 56% | 56% | ▼ 47% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 41% | 51% | • 50% |
| Clean sheets | • 26% | 25% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 76% | 71% | ▼ 62% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 74% | 78% | ▼ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Preston North End 0 - 1 - 0 Millwall. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Preston North End vs Millwall?
The Championship match finished Preston North End 0:2 Millwall. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Preston North End vs Millwall?
Preston North End score 1.21 goals per game on average and Millwall 1.32. The Championship average is 2.60 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 56% of Preston North End's matches and 47% of Millwall's.
What form are Preston North End and Millwall in?
Over the last 5 games Preston North End have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Millwall 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Preston North End vs Millwall?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Preston North End vs Millwall: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.