Preußen Münster vs Havelse: match statistics

Preußen Münster have the clearer edge as the home side, as their opponents have yet to score away from home, averaging just 0.71 xG and 1 shot on target per match. Havelse have lost 100% of their away fixtures so far, scoring an average of 0 goals, while Münster remain unbeaten at home and have drawn every match. However, the hosts create few high-quality chances, with an average xG of 0.96, so their advantage is not substantial enough to rule out a draw. Havelse’s defence allows opponents as much as 2.68 xG away from home, compared with 1.80 xG conceded by Münster at home, which should give the hosts more goalscoring opportunities. Both teams are on poor runs, but Münster’s 10 goals conceded in their last 5 matches looks better than Havelse’s 14, making a narrow home win the most likely outcome.

The BTTS signal is moderately positive, as Preußen Münster have seen both teams score in 100% of their matches this season, while Havelse have recorded this outcome in 80% of their last five games. Both teams averaged 1.4 goals scored in this sample, but they also conceded heavily: Münster 2.0 and Havelse as many as 2.8 goals per match. Havelse have a poor away record, averaging 0.0 goals scored and failing to score in 100% of their away matches, which clearly reduces confidence in the BTTS - Yes pick. At the same time, the hosts have not kept a clean sheet once, their average xG against is 1.66, and Havelse’s recent defensive performances have allowed opponents an average xG of 2.00. Münster’s attacking quality advantage, combined with both sides’ unstable defenses, slightly favors a scenario in which each team scores.

The profile of the last five matches for both teams clearly points towards goals: each team went over 2.5 goals in 80% of their games. Preußen Münster averaged 1.4 goals scored during this period, while Havelse conceded as many as 2.8 goals per match, strengthening the forecast of at least two goals for the hosts. The visitors also averaged 1.4 goals scored, while Münster allowed opponents 2.0 goals per game, which puts their expected contribution at 1.33 goals. In addition, the average xG against Havelse stands at a high 2.00, while the league average of 3.6 goals is above the typical level for cautious matches. The strongest pick is Over 1.5, as even with lower finishing efficiency from both attacks, the goals-conceded data gives an 82% probability of at least two goals.

The strongest-looking scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Preußen Münster victory at full-time, as the hosts were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, while Havelse failed to lead at half-time on any occasion during this period. Münster are creating more danger: their average xG stands at 1.08 compared with 0.71 for their opponents, and the team averages 4 shots on target per match, compared with just 1 for Havelse. The visitors have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and concede an average of 2.8 goals, while their opponents score an average of 1.4. After the break, Havelse have allowed their opponents an average of 2.0 goals in their last five appearances, which supports the likelihood of the even start being broken by the hosts in the second half.