Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Hammam-Lif: match statistics

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer sit 2nd, while Hammam-Lif are 12th, strengthening the case for the home side. The hosts are unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws with a 10:2 goal difference. At home, Progrès won their only match so far 2:0, creating chances worth an average of 1.00 xG and allowing opponents just 0.53 xG. Hammam-Lif do have 2 wins in their last five matches, but they scored only 3 goals during that period—significantly fewer than the hosts’ 10. Progrès’ solid defence, which has yet to concede at home, should give the hosts the edge, although a run of three draws in five matches increases the likelihood of the points being shared.

The strongest signal is Hammam-Lif’s very low attacking efficiency in their last five matches: the team averaged just 0.6 goals, while their xG was only 0.52. BTTS - Yes occurred in just 20% of the visitors’ last five games, whereas Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer recorded this scenario in 40% of their matches. The hosts are in good offensive form, averaging 2.0 goals and 1.69 xG across their last five appearances, while conceding only 0.4 goals per game. The visitors’ low xG, combined with the hosts’ defensive strength, suggests a high risk that Hammam-Lif will fail to score. In addition, the league’s BTTS rate stands at just 36%, with an average of 1.73 goals per match, clearly supporting BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team is expected to remain scoreless.

The Tunisian league is a very low-scoring competition, averaging just 1.73 goals per match, with only 27% of games going over 2.5 goals. In their last five matches, Progrès averaged 2.0 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, while Hammam-Lif scored just 0.6 goals and also conceded 0.4. The visitors create few chances, with an average xG of 0.52 across their last five appearances, while the hosts allow opponents 0.86 xG. Both teams recorded Over 2.5 goals in just 20% of their last five matches, which, despite the hosts’ strong attacking form, points to a limited goal ceiling. The strongest option is Under 3.5 goals, as the projected total of 1.85 goals leaves a clear margin even for a 2:1 result.

The data from the last five matches clearly suggest a cautious start: Progrès were level at half-time in 60% of their matches, while Hammam-Lif recorded a half-time draw in 67%. The visitors scored just 0.33 goals per match before the break and kept a clean sheet in the first half in 100% of these games, limiting the hosts’ chances of taking an early lead. After the interval, Hammam-Lif averaged no goals per match, whereas Progrès scored 0.8 goals and conceded none. The hosts are also unbeaten in their last five matches, with a record of two wins and three draws, while their opponents lost 20% of their games. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a narrow Progrès victory, thanks to their superior second-half efficiency.