Progreso vs Peñarol: match statistics
Progreso vs Peñarol: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Progreso played Peñarol in Primera División (Uruguay). The match was played on 4 April 2026. Final score: 0:2.
Current form
Progreso: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Peñarol: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Progreso scores 1.00 and concedes 1.67 goals per match. Peñarol scores 1.67 and concedes 0.89. League average: 2.41 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Progreso 44%, Peñarol 67%. Over 2.5: Progreso 44%, Peñarol 56%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Peñarol has higher xG: 1.61 vs 1.08. Progreso: 7.9 shots per match, Peñarol: 15.2.
Match halves
Progreso: half-time lead 11%, second-half goals 0.56. Peñarol: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 0.89.
Goals by minute
Progreso: 76-90+ (3 goals). Peñarol: 76-90+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.41 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-2. Average goals 3.50, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Peñarol is the favorite in this match — the visitors have 6 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses this season with 15 goals scored, while Progreso has only 1 win, 4 draws, 4 losses and 9 goals. Peñarol’s key advantage is defense and stability: Peñarol concedes 0.5 goals on average away and has 75% clean sheets, whereas Progreso concedes 2.0 goals in home matches and has recorded no clean sheets (0%). The visitors create better chances according to xG (average xG 1.61 for Peñarol vs 1.17 for Progreso), average 17 shots with 4.75 on target versus the hosts’ 8.4 shots and 2.8 on target, and have not failed to score on the road (0% matches without a goal) while Progreso failed to score in 60% of home matches. In the last 5 fixtures Peñarol are 3-1-1 with 8 goals, and Progreso 1-3-1 with 7 goals, which yields an average of 2.0 points per match for Peñarol versus 1.2 for Progreso in this period. Considering the defensive differential (0.5 vs 2.0 goals conceded), superior xG and shot advantage, I predict a victory for the visitors.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Progreso has a home BTTS rate of 100% (all home matches), and in the last 5 games both teams had BTTS in 60%, strongly favoring a Goal/Goal scenario. Peñarol, however, has 75% clean sheets away and concedes only 0.5 goals seasonally, but in the last 5 matches conceded 0.8 goals and produced 1.91 xG, so the visitors still have a realistic chance to score. Progreso averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match, registers 5.6 shots on target and a conversion rate of 14% (versus Peñarol’s 7%), indicating the home side efficiently converts chances into goals. Considering the dominant home signal (100% BTTS), recent form for both teams (60% in the last 5 matches) and the fact the away side generates 1.91 xG, I assess BTTS - Yes as more likely and price it at 65% versus 35% for No Goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG model gives Progreso 1.28 expected goals (average of 1.61 offensive xG at home and 0.94 xG against Peñarol) and Peñarol 1.33 (average of 1.61 offensive xG away and 1.05 xG against Progreso), totaling ~2.61 goals. Season averages show Progreso scores 2.0 goals/match and Peñarol 1.25 (combined 3.25), with Progreso having 100% of matches over 1.5 and Peñarol 50% — this strongly supports at least two goals. Shot and conversion metrics also support a goal-scoring game: Progreso averages 13.8 shots with 5.6 on target and a 14% conversion, Peñarol 17.0 shots with 4.75 on target and a 7% conversion. At the same time Peñarol concedes only 0.5 on average away and has 75% clean sheets, so Over 2.5 is only slightly favored (≈60%/40%), while Over 3.5 remains unlikely (≈25%/75%); for these reasons I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Statistics favor Peñarol: the seasonal away win rate is 75% versus 60% for home, and in the last five matches the visitors won 60% while Progreso only 20%. Half-time indicators show an advantage for the visitors — in their last five games Peñarol held a lead at the break in 60% (3 of 5), while Progreso were trailing at half-time in 60% (3 of 5). Both teams have equal xG (1.61), but Peñarol concedes a lower average xG against (0.94 vs 1.05), concedes only 0.5 goals seasonally and has 75% clean sheets, which supports maintaining the lead. Progreso score more and more efficiently at home (2.0 goals on average and a 14% conversion rate versus Peñarol’s 7%), however their defense concedes 1.2 goals per match on average and they have conceded three goals in the 31–45 minute interval. Therefore the most likely scenario is Peñarol leading at half-time and the visitors winning by full-time (selection 2/2).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Progreso | Peñarol | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Peñarol is 67% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Progreso · 2 pts / match - Peñarol
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Peñarol is 67% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Progreso · 1.67 goals / match - Peñarol
Peñarol is 88% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.67 goals / match - Progreso · 0.89 goals / match - Peñarol
Progreso scores in 56% of matches (5 of 9 matches), while Peñarol keeps a clean sheet in 33% (3 of 9 matches).
Peñarol scores in 100% of matches (9 of 9 matches), while Progreso keeps a clean sheet in 11% (1 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Progreso
Over / Under - Peñarol
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Peñarol is 100% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.78 pts / match - Progreso · 1.56 pts / match - Peñarol
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Progreso - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 11% of matches and wins 11%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Peñarol - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 67%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (3 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Progreso
Peñarol
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Progreso | Liga | Peñarol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.67 | 2.41 | ▲ 2.56 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 44% | 50% | ▲ 67% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 44% | 47% | ▲ 56% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 11% | 28% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 78% | 68% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 89% | 76% | ▲ 89% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Progreso 0 - 0 - 2 Peñarol. Average goals 3.50, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Progreso vs Peñarol?
The Primera División match finished Progreso 0:2 Peñarol. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Progreso and Peñarol?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Progreso won 0, Peñarol won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Progreso vs Peñarol?
Progreso score 1.00 goals per game on average and Peñarol 1.67. The Primera División average is 2.41 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 44% of Progreso's matches and 67% of Peñarol's.
What form are Progreso and Peñarol in?
Over the last 5 games Progreso have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Peñarol 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Progreso vs Peñarol?
The statistical background for Progreso vs Peñarol — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.