Progreso vs Wanderers: match statistics
Progreso vs Wanderers: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Progreso played Wanderers in Primera División (Uruguay). The match was played on 18 April 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Progreso: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match. Wanderers: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Progreso scores 0.82 and concedes 1.64 goals per match. Wanderers scores 1.09 and concedes 1.55. League average: 2.47 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Progreso 36%, Wanderers 55%. Over 2.5: Progreso 36%, Wanderers 64%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 46%.
xG, shots and style
Wanderers has higher xG: 1.40 vs 1.10. Progreso: 7.9 shots per match, Wanderers: 11.0.
Match halves
Progreso: half-time lead 9%, second-half goals 0.45. Wanderers: half-time lead 27%, second-half goals 0.55.
Goals by minute
Progreso: 76-90+ (3 goals). Wanderers: 31-45+ (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.47 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 46%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back a Wanderers win because Progreso have no home wins (0% win rate), score only 0.83 goals per game on average and failed to score in 67% of their home matches. The hosts concede 2.0 goals per home game and have a -7 goal difference at their stadium, while Wanderers concede 1.8 away and have a -4 goal difference, indicating a weaker defense at Progreso. Offensively the visitors create more: Wanderers average 12 shots and 3.4 on target per away match versus Progreso’s 8 shots and 2.83 on target, and xG 1.41 vs 1.13 suggests higher quality chances for the visitors. Form confirms Wanderers’ edge — they average 1.2 points per game in the last 5 matches, while Progreso average just 0.4 and have not won any of their last five. Given the higher away xG, greater shot volume and a much lower percentage of scoreless games for Wanderers (20% vs 67%), I predict a Wanderers victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes. Season metrics show Progreso has BTTS 50% and Wanderers 60% versus a league average of 49%. In the last 5 matches Wanderers have BTTS 80% and Progreso 40%; Progreso averages 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded in that span, while Wanderers score 1.6 and concede 1.8. Both teams’ xG are similar: Progreso xG 1.4, Wanderers xG 1.41; xG against 1.56 and 1.58 respectively, indicating risk of goals from both sides. Additionally, Progreso averages 4.5 shots on target per match versus Wanderers 3.4, with conversion rates 11% vs 8% and clean sheet percentages 33% vs 20%, which together support a scenario where both teams find the net. Considering also that home matches over 2.5 goals occur in 67% and away matches in 60%, I assess BTTS probability at around 70% versus 30% for No Goal.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I recommend Over 1.5: both teams register a high share of matches above 1.5 goals this season — Progreso 83% and Wanderers 80% (avg 81.5%). xG values confirm goal potential: attacking xG 1.4 (Progreso) and 1.41 (Wanderers), and conceded xG 1.56 (Progreso) and 1.58 (Wanderers), yielding about 1.49 expected goals for Progreso and 1.48 for Wanderers, totaling 2.97 goals. Additionally, Wanderers have scored 8 goals in their last 5 matches (avg 1.6) with 100% of those games over 2.5, while Progreso have 4 goals in their last 5 (avg 0.8) and only 20% over 2.5 — this shows asymmetry but still boosts total goals. Seasonal over 2.5 rates are 67% (Progreso) and 60% (Wanderers), roughly 64% on average — a moderate signal, but the strongest and most consistent signal from the data is the Over 1.5 line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I select the X/2 scenario (draw at Half-Time, Wanderers win Full-Time) as the most probable: in the last 5 matches Wanderers have a 40% win rate versus 0% for the hosts, and their average Half-Time points in the last 5 matches is 1.4 for Wanderers versus 0.4 for Progreso. The first half should remain balanced — Progreso were level at the break in 50% of matches, and both teams have a high proportion of games with at least one goal before Half-Time (Progreso 83% vs Wanderers 80%). In the second half the visitors have the edge: Wanderers’ average second-half goals are 1.6 versus 1.17 for the hosts, and in the last 5 matches Wanderers have scored >0.5 goals after the break in 100% of cases. The teams’ xG is almost identical (1.4 vs 1.41), indicating even chances, but Wanderers’ better form and effectiveness in second halves and their 40% win rate in the last 5 matches shift the Full-Time result in favor of the visitors.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Progreso | Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Wanderers is 200% better for: last-5 form.
0.4 pts / match - Progreso · 1.2 pts / match - Wanderers
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Wanderers is 33% better for: goals scored per match.
0.82 goals / match - Progreso · 1.09 goals / match - Wanderers
Wanderers is 6% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.64 goals / match - Progreso · 1.55 goals / match - Wanderers
Progreso scores in 45% of matches (5 of 11 matches), while Wanderers keeps a clean sheet in 27% (3 of 11 matches).
Wanderers scores in 73% of matches (8 of 11 matches), while Progreso keeps a clean sheet in 9% (1 of 11 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Progreso
Over / Under - Wanderers
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Wanderers is 84% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.64 pts / match - Progreso · 1.18 pts / match - Wanderers
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Progreso - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 9% of matches and wins 9%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Wanderers - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 27% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -4 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (3 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Progreso
Wanderers
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Progreso | Liga | Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.45 | 2.47 | ▲ 2.64 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 36% | 49% | ▲ 55% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 36% | 46% | ▲ 64% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 9% | 28% | • 27% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 82% | 72% | ▲ 82% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 73% | 75% | ▲ 82% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Other recorded players
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Progreso 1 - 1 - 0 Wanderers. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Progreso vs Wanderers?
The Primera División match finished Progreso 2:1 Wanderers. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Progreso and Wanderers?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Progreso won 1, Wanderers won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Progreso vs Wanderers?
Progreso score 0.82 goals per game on average and Wanderers 1.09. The Primera División average is 2.47 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 36% of Progreso's matches and 55% of Wanderers's.
What form are Progreso and Wanderers in?
Over the last 5 games Progreso have a 0-2-3 record (0.40 points per game) and Wanderers 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Progreso vs Wanderers?
The statistical background for Progreso vs Wanderers — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.