PSIM Yogyakarta vs Borneo: match statistics

Borneo are the favourites: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while PSIM Yogyakarta have failed to win during that period and have suffered 4 defeats. Away from home, the visitors average 1.33 goals and 3.33 shots on target per match, while the hosts average 0.67 goals and 2.33 shots on target at home. Borneo’s advantage is also reflected in the quality of chances: their away xG stands at 1.53, compared with PSIM’s 1.26 xG at home. The hosts’ defence concedes an average of 2.33 goals per match at home, whereas Borneo allow an average of 1.00 goals away. Although a draw remains possible, Borneo’s 67% away win rate, combined with PSIM’s failure to win at home, points to the visitors.

The biggest obstacle to both teams scoring is PSIM Yogyakarta’s finishing: the hosts average 0.67 goals per game this season and just 0.4 over their last 5 matches. Borneo conceded an average of 0.8 goals over the same period, so although the hosts have recently generated an xG of 1.25, their goal is far from certain. The visitors have considerably greater attacking potential: they average 1.6 goals across their last 5 matches, compared with PSIM’s 0.4, and their average xG is 1.64 versus 1.25. BTTS - Yes landed in 40% of the hosts’ last 5 matches and 60% of the visitors’ games, but PSIM’s poor finishing tips the assessment towards BTTS - No, meaning at least one team is expected not to score.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: all of Borneo’s matches so far and 67% of PSIM’s matches have finished with no more than 3 goals. PSIM average 0.67 goals and have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches, limiting the likelihood of a high-scoring game. Borneo have greater attacking potential, averaging 1.33 goals with an xG of 1.53, but their matches have also stayed below the 3.5-goal line. The main risk to this pick is PSIM’s recent defensive weakness: they have conceded 9 goals in 5 matches, during which both teams recorded at least 3 goals in 60% of their games. Even so, the projected total of 2.5 goals gives the Under 3.5 line a clearer edge than the more evenly poised 2.5 line.

In their last five matches, PSIM were level at half-time in 80% of games, compared with 60% for Borneo; both teams averaged just 0.2 goals in the first half. A half-time draw is therefore the most likely outcome, although Borneo led at the break in 67% of the matches included in the season data, making an away lead a significant alternative. After half-time, Borneo have recently averaged 1.4 goals, while PSIM have conceded 1.8, so the full-time outcome points more clearly towards the visitors. The hosts have not won any of their last five matches and averaged 0.4 goals, whereas Borneo won three of five and scored 1.6 goals per game. The strongest HT/FT scenario is therefore a draw at half-time followed by a Borneo win after 90 minutes (X/2).