Puebla vs Juárez: match statistics

Juárez holds a seasonal advantage: 11 wins and 49 goals this season versus Puebla’s 6 wins and 31 goals, indicating greater efficiency over the long term. In the last 5 matches Juárez has scored 10 goals and averages 2.0 points per game (3-1-1), while Puebla has 6 goals and averages 1.4 points per game (2-1-2). Puebla generates more chances at home — on average 14.14 shots, 4.79 on target and 1.51 xG per match — whereas Juárez away averages 10.67 shots, 3.53 on target and 1.18 xG, but converts better (12% conversion vs Puebla’s 9%). Defensively both sides are prone to conceding: Puebla concedes 2.0 goals at home on average, Juárez concedes 1.8 away, and additionally Puebla fails to score in 43% of home matches versus 20% for Juárez, which reduces the hosts’ effectiveness. Considering the superior overall record (11 wins vs 6), recent attacking form (10 goals vs 6) and higher efficiency, I back an away win, though I expect an open, high-scoring game.

Both teams show very high season BTTS rates: Puebla 76% and Juárez 80%, with Juárez posting BTTS in 100% of the last 5 matches while Puebla in 60%. This season Puebla scores 1.76 and concedes 1.59, Juárez scores 1.27 and concedes 1.8 per match, indicating both sides regularly create and allow goals. Supported by xG: Puebla has xG 1.47 versus Juárez xG against 1.6, and Juárez has xG 1.18 versus Puebla xG against 1.12, so both teams generate genuine chances. Additionally, low clean sheet rates — 12% for Puebla and 7% for Juárez — and a high share of matches over 2.5 goals (71% and 67%) increase the likelihood of both teams scoring, hence the BTTS = "Yes" forecast with a 79% probability.

Both teams show a clear tendency toward goal-heavy matches: Puebla averages 1.76 goals with xG 1.47, Juárez averages 1.27 goals with xG 1.18, and the BTTS rates are 76% and 80% respectively. The blended total projection (combining xG and seasonal averages) yields expected 1.66 goals for the home side and 1.29 for the away, totaling 2.95 goals—close to the league average of 2.92. A Poisson model with λ=2.95 gives ~79.5% probability for Over 1.5 and ~56.6% for Over 2.5, while seasonal Over 1.5 rates are 88% (Puebla) and 87% (Juárez), and Over 2.5 rates are 71% and 67%, which increases my final assessment. Additionally, in the last 5 matches Juárez recorded 100% Over 2.5 and Puebla 60%, so the strongest data signal is to play the Over 1.5 line; Over 3.5 remains significantly less likely (~35%).

Puebla is the favorite: at home they average 1.76 goals per match versus Juárez’s 1.27, have a higher xG (1.47 vs 1.18) and a higher home points average (1.47 vs 1.07), all favoring a home win. Puebla led at the break in 8 matches (47%) and score on average 0.88 goals before half-time; Juárez led at the break in only 4 matches (27%) and concede on average 0.73 goals by half-time, so I expect Puebla to more often hold the lead at the break. Puebla are also strong after the break: they score on average 1.53 goals in the second half, have 29 points in second halves and a second-half points average of 1.71, and win second halves in 53% of cases, whereas Juárez have a second-half points average of 0.87 and win only 13% of those halves, which reduces the visitors’ chance of a turnaround. Additionally, Juárez have a higher xG against (1.6) and poorer away form (away points average 1.07 and only 27% wins), so the potential for a complete comeback is limited. As a result the most likely scenario is Puebla leading at half-time and ultimately winning (HT/FT 1/1), with the alternative being a draw at half-time and a later Puebla win (HT/FT X/1).