Puebla vs Querétaro: match statistics

I predict an away win (2). Puebla’s last 5 matches: 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses, 3 goals scored, 11 conceded — averaging 0.2 points per match. Querétaro’s last 5: 2 wins, 3 draws, 7 scored, 4 conceded — averaging 1.8 points per match. Seasonally, Puebla at home averages 1.19 goals per game with xG 1.5, 14.06 shots (4.69 on target) and an efficiency of ~8%, while Querétaro away averages 0.69 goals with xG 1.11, 10.13 shots (3.5 on target) and an efficiency of ~7%. The decisive advantage for the visitors is form and short-term defense — in the last 5 matches Querétaro concedes 0.8 goals per game vs Puebla’s 2.2, despite marginal seasonal defensive differences (1.81 vs 1.88). Given Querétaro’s clearly better points and goal balance over the last five games, I rate the visitors as more likely to win.

I select BTTS - Yes as the more likely scenario because Puebla has a seasonal BTTS rate of 53% and 60% in the last 5 matches, while Querétaro has 44% for the season and as high as 80% in the last 5, strongly favoring both teams scoring. Puebla conceded an average of 2.2 goals in their last five matches (11 conceded), while Querétaro scored an average of 1.4 goals (7 scored), so the visitors have a realistic scoring tempo against the hosts’ weak defense. Seasonal goals-per-game averages are 1.35 for Puebla and 0.69 for Querétaro, and Puebla has a higher shot conversion rate of 12% versus 7% for the visitors, increasing the likelihood that the hosts will score as well. Recent xG shows 1.55 xG for Querétaro in the last 5 matches against 1.81 xG for Puebla in the same period, confirming that chances will be created. Additionally, the league has a seasonal BTTS rate of 59% and an average of 2.9 goals per game, while clean sheets for home and away sides are only 29% and 19%, so the both-teams-to-score scenario is stronger than No Goal.

Calculated expected goals: 1.42 for Puebla ((1.18 + 1.66)/2) and 1.34 for Querétaro ((1.11 + 1.57)/2), total 2.76. Seasonal numbers confirm an offensive context: Puebla scores 1.35 goals per match on average, Querétaro 0.69, but in the last 5 matches Querétaro averages 1.4 goals and has average xG 1.55. Over/Under stats show Over 1.5 occurred in 71% of Puebla’s matches and 75% of Querétaro’s (avg ~73%), while Over 2.5 occurred in 41% and 56% (avg ~48.5%), which together with the expected 2.76 goals gives a Poisson distribution with about a 76% chance of >1.5 and about 52% for >2.5. Additionally, clean sheets are rare (29% and 19%), and both teams scored in 53% and 44% of matches, increasing the probability of at least two goals. Recommendation: Over on the 1.5 line as the strongest signal (76%/24%), while Over 2.5 is marginal (52%/48%), and Over 3.5 is weaker (around 30%/70%).

Statistics suggest a draw at Half-Time: Puebla were level at the break in 53% of home matches, and Querétaro had a half-time draw in 80% of their last five fixtures, yielding a strong signal for HT draws (my estimate ~65%). In the second half the home side are clearly more threatening — Puebla score an average of 0.82 goals after the break versus 0.19 for Querétaro, and the hosts win 35% of second halves (vs 0% for the visitors), so HT stalemates frequently tilt in Puebla’s favor. Seasonal figures confirm the home advantage: Puebla average 1.35 goals at home with 1.18 xG, while Querétaro register 0.69 goals away with 1.11 xG and just 13% away wins. Therefore the strongest signal is a Half-Time draw and a Puebla victory at Full-Time (X/1), which the proposed probability distribution reflects.