Puebla vs Toluca: match statistics
Toluca is displaying significantly higher form and quality this season, as confirmed by all key statistics. The visitors have an impressive record of 16 wins with only 4 losses, while Puebla has managed just 4 wins against 13 losses. The goal difference is telling: Puebla has -7 at home, Toluca +10 away. The hosts concede an average of 2.22 goals per home match, while Toluca concedes only 0.69 goals on the road and keeps clean sheets in 46% of their away matches. The form in the last 5 matches also favors the visitors (2.0 points per game vs. 1.2 for Puebla). Toluca has a 54% away win rate, which, combined with the hosts' weak defense (45 goals conceded this season), gives the visitors a clear advantage to secure a victory.
Puebla vs Toluca: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Puebla played Toluca in Liga MX (Mexico). The match was played on 31 January 2026. Final score: 0:0.
Current form
Puebla: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Toluca: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Puebla scores 1.15 and concedes 2.25 goals per match. Toluca scores 2.08 and concedes 0.96. League average: 2.94 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Puebla 55%, Toluca 54%. Over 2.5: Puebla 65%, Toluca 58%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
Toluca has higher xG: 1.79 vs 1.32. Puebla: 11.9 shots per match, Toluca: 17.2.
Match halves
Puebla: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 0.75. Toluca: half-time lead 42%, second-half goals 1.12.
Goals by minute
Puebla: 76-90+ (8 goals). Toluca: 46-60 (15 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga MX: 2.94 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Toluca is displaying significantly higher form and quality this season, as confirmed by all key statistics. The visitors have an impressive record of 16 wins with only 4 losses, while Puebla has managed just 4 wins against 13 losses. The goal difference is telling: Puebla has -7 at home, Toluca +10 away. The hosts concede an average of 2.22 goals per home match, while Toluca concedes only 0.69 goals on the road and keeps clean sheets in 46% of their away matches. The form in the last 5 matches also favors the visitors (2.0 points per game vs. 1.2 for Puebla). Toluca has a 54% away win rate, which, combined with the hosts' weak defense (45 goals conceded this season), gives the visitors a clear advantage to secure a victory.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Puebla | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Toluca is 67% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Puebla · 2 pts / match - Toluca
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Toluca is 81% better for: goals scored per match.
1.15 goals / match - Puebla · 2.08 goals / match - Toluca
Toluca is 134% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.25 goals / match - Puebla · 0.96 goals / match - Toluca
Puebla scores in 60% of matches (12 of 20 matches), while Toluca keeps a clean sheet in 35% (9 of 26 matches).
Toluca scores in 73% of matches (19 of 26 matches), while Puebla keeps a clean sheet in 10% (2 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Puebla
Over / Under - Toluca
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Toluca is 116% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.75 pts / match - Puebla · 1.62 pts / match - Toluca
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Puebla - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 20%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Toluca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 42% of matches and wins 62%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 100% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (15 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Puebla
Toluca
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).
Teams vs league
| Puebla | Liga | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.40 | 2.94 | ▲ 3.04 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 55% | 57% | ▼ 54% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 65% | 54% | ▲ 58% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 10% | 24% | ▲ 35% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 75% | 72% | • 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 75% | 78% | ▲ 81% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Puebla 0 - 0 - 1 Toluca. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Puebla vs Toluca?
The Liga MX match finished Puebla 0:0 Toluca. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Puebla vs Toluca?
Puebla score 1.15 goals per game on average and Toluca 2.08. The Liga MX average is 2.94 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 55% of Puebla's matches and 54% of Toluca's.
What form are Puebla and Toluca in?
Over the last 5 games Puebla have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Toluca 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Puebla vs Toluca?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Puebla vs Toluca: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.