Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca: match statistics
Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Pumas UNAM played Pachuca in Liga MX (Mexico). The match was played on 18 May 2026. Venue: Estadio Olímpico de Universitario. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Pumas UNAM: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Pachuca: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Pumas UNAM scores 1.71 and concedes 1.37 goals per match. Pachuca scores 1.38 and concedes 1.10. League average: 2.92 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Pumas UNAM 66%, Pachuca 51%. Over 2.5: Pumas UNAM 50%, Pachuca 49%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 56%.
xG, shots and style
Pachuca has higher xG: 1.48 vs 1.31. Pumas UNAM: 11.9 shots per match, Pachuca: 14.1.
Match halves
Pumas UNAM: half-time lead 39%, second-half goals 0.76. Pachuca: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.69.
Goals by minute
Pumas UNAM: 31-45+ (15 goals). Pachuca: 31-45+ (15 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga MX: 2.92 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 56%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-3. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Pumas UNAM hold the edge as hosts: at home they average 1.83 goals per match (65 goals this season) with a 14% conversion rate and 4.5 shots on target, while Pachuca away average 1.32 goals with 10% conversion and 4.32 shots on target. The home side controls play more often (54% possession vs 49% for the visitors), have a clearer home goal difference (+11) versus +1 for Pachuca on the road, and concede 1.22 goals at home on average vs 1.26 conceded by the visitors away. In the last 5 matches Pumas scored 12 and conceded 9 (2W, 2D, 1L), whereas Pachuca scored 5 and conceded 5, winning 3 of their last 5, translating to an average of 1.8 points for the visitors versus 1.6 points for the hosts. Both teams’ xG are similar (1.46 for Pumas at home vs 1.39 for Pachuca away), but a lower percentage of goalless matches for Pumas (11% vs 26%) and higher conversion argue for greater reliability of goals from the hosts. On that basis I predict a home victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Heuristic xG points to goals from both sides: projected xG is about 1.50 for Pumas (xG_for 1.55 vs xG_against opponent 1.45) and about 1.23 for Pachuca (xG_for 1.39 vs xG_against home side 1.07), which via a Poisson approach yields ~78% chance that Pumas score and ~71% chance that Pachuca score, with the product of these values around 55% for BTTS. Seasonal and league signals support this direction — the league has BTTS 59%, Pachuca seasonally 58% and Pumas 45%, so league and opponent statistics favor “Yes”. Form over the last 5 matches is mixed: Pumas had 60% BTTS in their last 5 with an average 2.4 goals scored/1.8 conceded, while Pachuca has only 20% BTTS in their last 5 with an average 1.0 scored/1.0 conceded, which partially lowers confidence but does not eliminate the risk of both teams scoring. Additionally both sides create chances (shots on target 4.8 vs 4.32) and have seasonal goal figures 65 scored/52 conceded (Pumas) and 54 scored/43 conceded (Pachuca), which combined with an xG-based model ~55% and league support at 59% gives an edge to BTTS = Yes (I estimate 60% vs 40%).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I back Over 1.5 as the best option: season metrics show 75% of Pumas matches and 74% of Pachuca matches exceed 1.5 goals, and an xG-based model (1.55 for the home side and defensive susceptibility of the away at 1.45) yields expected goals of 1.50 for Pumas and 1.23 for Pachuca, totaling 2.73 (about a 76% chance of at least 2 goals). Pumas averages 14.8 shots and 4.8 on target per game, Pachuca 13.26 shots and 4.32 on target, with a conversion rate of 10%, which confirms a realistic scoring potential. In the last 5 matches Pumas scored 12 goals (2.4 per game) and conceded 1.8, while Pachuca scored 5 goals (1.0 per game), further increasing the probability of at least two goals in the match. Additionally, BTTS rates are 45% for the home side and 58% for the away, and clean sheets are relatively rare (30% and 21%), so the Over 1.5 line has a clear economic and statistical edge.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Pumas led at the break in 9 of 20 matches (45%), while Pachuca led in only 4 of 19 games (21%), indicating a home-side advantage in the first 45 minutes. The hosts score an average of 0.7 goals by half-time, whereas Pachuca concedes an average of 1.0 goal by half-time; additionally, the hosts’ xG is 1.55 versus the visitors’ 1.39, confirming greater chance creation by Pumas. Over the full match Pumas have a 60% home-win rate and average 1.9 points per home game, while Pachuca averages 1.42 points away, and HT-points are 34 versus 17, which increases the likelihood of the hosts maintaining their lead. On this basis the strongest scenario is a lead at the break and a final win for Pumas (HT/FT 1/1); I assign this outcome a 40% probability.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Pumas UNAM | Pachuca | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Pachuca is 13% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Pumas UNAM · 1.8 pts / match - Pachuca
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Pumas UNAM is 24% better for: goals scored per match.
1.71 goals / match - Pumas UNAM · 1.38 goals / match - Pachuca
Pachuca is 25% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.37 goals / match - Pumas UNAM · 1.1 goals / match - Pachuca
Pumas UNAM scores in 89% of matches (34 of 38 matches), while Pachuca keeps a clean sheet in 26% (10 of 39 matches).
Pachuca scores in 72% of matches (28 of 39 matches), while Pumas UNAM keeps a clean sheet in 26% (10 of 38 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Pumas UNAM
Over / Under - Pachuca
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Pumas UNAM is 18% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.55 pts / match - Pumas UNAM · 1.31 pts / match - Pachuca
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Pumas UNAM - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 39% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Pachuca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 49%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (15 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (15 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Pumas UNAM
Pachuca
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).
Teams vs league
| Pumas UNAM | Liga | Pachuca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.08 | 2.92 | ▼ 2.49 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 66% | 59% | ▼ 51% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 56% | ▼ 49% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 26% | 24% | ▲ 26% |
| Goal before half-time | • 74% | 73% | ▲ 77% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 79% | 76% | ▼ 64% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Pumas UNAM 1 - 0 - 3 Pachuca. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca?
The Liga MX match finished Pumas UNAM 1:0 Pachuca. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Pumas UNAM and Pachuca?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Pumas UNAM won 1, Pachuca won 3 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca?
Pumas UNAM score 1.71 goals per game on average and Pachuca 1.38. The Liga MX average is 2.92 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 56% of games. Both teams score in 66% of Pumas UNAM's matches and 51% of Pachuca's.
What form are Pumas UNAM and Pachuca in?
Over the last 5 games Pumas UNAM have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Pachuca 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Pumas UNAM vs Pachuca: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.