Pumas UNAM vs Toluca: match statistics
Toluca demonstrates significantly better form and statistics this season, securing 19 victories with only 4 losses overall, while Pumas UNAM holds a record of 9-10-7. Toluca's away results are particularly impressive – 53% of matches won, 53% clean sheets, and just 0.6 goals conceded on average per away match. Pumas wins only 33% of matches at home and has defensive issues (0.92 goals conceded per match). Toluca boasts better xG metrics (1.57 for vs 1.05 against in away games) and is in excellent form with three consecutive wins. The difference in goal difference (+13 for Toluca away vs +7 for Pumas at home) further speaks for the visitors. Considering all statistics, Toluca holds a clear advantage and should secure three points in this clash.
Pumas UNAM vs Toluca: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Pumas UNAM played Toluca in Liga MX (Mexico). The match was played on 4 March 2026. Final score: 2:3.
Current form
Pumas UNAM: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match. Toluca: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Pumas UNAM scores 1.54 and concedes 1.35 goals per match. Toluca scores 1.97 and concedes 0.84. League average: 2.93 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Pumas UNAM 69%, Toluca 48%. Over 2.5: Pumas UNAM 46%, Toluca 52%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Toluca has higher xG: 1.79 vs 1.32. Pumas UNAM: 11.9 shots per match, Toluca: 17.3.
Match halves
Pumas UNAM: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.65. Toluca: half-time lead 45%, second-half goals 1.03.
Goals by minute
Pumas UNAM: 31-45+ (11 goals). Toluca: 46-60 (15 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga MX: 2.93 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Toluca demonstrates significantly better form and statistics this season, securing 19 victories with only 4 losses overall, while Pumas UNAM holds a record of 9-10-7. Toluca's away results are particularly impressive – 53% of matches won, 53% clean sheets, and just 0.6 goals conceded on average per away match. Pumas wins only 33% of matches at home and has defensive issues (0.92 goals conceded per match). Toluca boasts better xG metrics (1.57 for vs 1.05 against in away games) and is in excellent form with three consecutive wins. The difference in goal difference (+13 for Toluca away vs +7 for Pumas at home) further speaks for the visitors. Considering all statistics, Toluca holds a clear advantage and should secure three points in this clash.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Pumas UNAM | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Toluca is 28% better for: goals scored per match.
1.54 goals / match - Pumas UNAM · 1.97 goals / match - Toluca
Toluca is 61% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.35 goals / match - Pumas UNAM · 0.84 goals / match - Toluca
Pumas UNAM scores in 88% of matches (23 of 26 matches), while Toluca keeps a clean sheet in 42% (13 of 31 matches).
Toluca scores in 74% of matches (23 of 31 matches), while Pumas UNAM keeps a clean sheet in 23% (6 of 26 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Pumas UNAM
Over / Under - Toluca
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Toluca is 17% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.46 pts / match - Pumas UNAM · 1.71 pts / match - Toluca
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Pumas UNAM - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Toluca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 45% of matches and wins 61%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 2.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 100% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 0% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +6 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (11 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (15 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Pumas UNAM
Toluca
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).
Teams vs league
| Pumas UNAM | Liga | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.88 | 2.93 | ▼ 2.81 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 69% | 57% | ▼ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 46% | 55% | ▼ 52% |
| Clean sheets | • 23% | 24% | ▲ 42% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 69% | 74% | ▼ 71% |
| Goal after half-time | • 77% | 76% | ▼ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Pumas UNAM 0 - 1 - 0 Toluca. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Pumas UNAM vs Toluca?
The Liga MX match finished Pumas UNAM 2:3 Toluca. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Pumas UNAM vs Toluca?
Pumas UNAM score 1.54 goals per game on average and Toluca 1.97. The Liga MX average is 2.93 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 69% of Pumas UNAM's matches and 48% of Toluca's.
What form are Pumas UNAM and Toluca in?
Over the last 5 games Pumas UNAM have a 3-2-0 record (2.20 points per game) and Toluca 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Pumas UNAM vs Toluca?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Pumas UNAM vs Toluca: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.