Puskás vs Győri ETO: match statistics

The favorite is Győri ETO, who sit 1st in the table with 16 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses this season, while Puskás have 11 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses. Away metrics favor Győri: they average 2.50 goals per away match, register 6.57 shots on target per game and a conversion rate of 15%, whereas Puskás at home score 1.15 goals, have 4.85 shots on target and an 8% conversion. Additionally, Győri have 0% of away matches without scoring versus 23% of such matches for the hosts, and xG favors Győri 1.93 to 1.78 for Puskás. In the last 5 matches Győri scored 8 goals and average 2.0 points per game (3W,1D,1L), while Puskás scored 6 goals and average 1.4 points per game (2W,1D,2L). Considering the higher away win rate (57% vs 31%), superior shot efficiency and a markedly better goal differential (+16 Győri vs -3 Puskás at home), I predict an away victory.

I back BTTS - Yes (70% vs 30%) because Győri has a seasonal BTTS rate of 79% and averages 2.5 goals scored per match, while the league BTTS average is 62%. Puskás has a solid defense this season — only 0.64 goals conceded on average and 50% clean sheets at home — but in the last 5 matches the hosts have been conceding an average of 1.0 goal. Győri creates a lot of chances: season xG of 1.93, xG in the last 5 matches 2.09, and the visitors’ conversion rate is 15% versus 8% for Puskás, which increases the realistic chance of a goal. Additionally, both teams have 60% BTTS in the last 5 matches, and 56% of Győri’s matches combine over 2.5 goals and BTTS, so the visitors’ offensive signals outweigh the hosts’ clean sheet prospects.

The xG-based model gives 1.79 expected goals for Puskás (xG_for_home 2.11 and xG_against_away 1.47 → average 1.79) and 1.47 for Győri ETO (xG_for_away 1.93 and xG_against_home 1.00 → average 1.47), totaling 3.26 expected goals. In practice Győri scores 2.50 goals per game (54 goals this season), Puskás 1.36 (34 goals), while Puskás generates 2.11 xG but has a low conversion rate of 8% versus 15% for Győri, which explains divergences between xG and actual goals. Seasonal rates show Over 1.5 in 57% of Puskás matches and 93% of Győri matches, Over 2.5 in 36% vs 64% and Over 3.5 in 21% vs 50%; combined with total xG=3.26 and the league average goals of 2.96 this provides a strong signal for the over. Additionally, in 79% of Győri matches both teams scored and the team averages 6.57 shots on target, while Puskás has 50% clean sheets, which partially offsets the visitors' offense but does not materially reduce the expected combined total. As a result I recommend the over side at the 1.5 line as the strongest signal (I estimate the probability of exceeding 1.5 at ~92%), Over 2.5 at ~72% and Over 3.5 at ~41%.

Győri ETO led at the break in 8 of 14 matches (57%) and scores an average of 1.29 goals in the first half compared to Puskás’s 0.57, indicating an advantage for the visitors before the interval. Over full matches Győri averages 2.5 goals while Puskás concedes 0.64 goals per game — a goal-differential gap of 1.86 points, suggesting the visitors have the attacking strength to maintain a lead. Although the hosts’ xG is 2.11 versus the visitors’ 1.93, Győri’s shooting efficiency (conversion 15% vs Puskás 8%) and better form in the last five matches (60% wins for the visitors vs 40% for the hosts) increase the probability of a final victory for the visitors. Additionally, 79% of Győri’s matches feature both teams scoring, so I expect goal exchange, but the strongest signal is the visitors leading at the break and winning by full-time (HT/FT 2/2). The probability distribution reflects these signals: 36% for 2/2, 15% for X/2 and 9% for X/X as the main alternatives.