Puskás vs Paksi SE: match statistics

Puskás sit 2nd in the table, while Paksi SE are 7th. In their last five matches, the hosts have collected 7 points from 3 wins, compared with the visitors’ 5 points. Puskás have scored 10 goals during this period, while Paksi have netted 11; however, the visitors have also conceded as many as 13 goals—6 more than the hosts. Paksi’s away defence looks particularly vulnerable: they concede an average of 5 goals per match, have yet to keep a clean sheet, and lost their only away game so far. Puskás also lost their only home match and failed to score, but they are creating slightly higher-quality chances, with an average xG of 1.37 compared with Paksi’s 1.33. The hosts’ superior recent form points to a potential turnaround.

The BTTS signal is very strong, as both teams have scored and conceded in 100% of their league matches so far, compared with the league average of 59%. Puskás average 3.0 goals per game, while Paksi SE average 2.0, and neither side has kept a clean sheet yet. The last five matches also support this scenario: the hosts have scored an average of 2.0 goals and conceded 1.4, while the visitors have scored 2.2 and allowed their opponents 2.6 goals. Paksi SE have recorded BTTS in 100% of their last five matches, compared with 60% for Puskás, but the hosts' attacking potential is confirmed by an xG of 1.41 and an average of 6.5 shots on target per game this season. The only higher risk concerns a potential lack of finishing from Paksi, but their xG of 1.57 over the last five matches and Puskás' weak defence, which allows an xG of 1.63, clearly increase the chances of an away goal.

The match profile clearly favors goals: in all previous meetings between the two teams, at least 2, 3, and 4 goals were scored. Puskás averages 1.98 xG at home, while Paksi allows 1.44 xG away from home, giving the hosts solid potential of around 1.65 goals. The visitors average 1.33 xG away from home, but Puskás’s defense allows opponents 1.61 xG, which is why their projection also exceeds 1.5 goals. In their last five matches, Paksi averaged 2.2 goals scored and 2.6 conceded, while their games exceeded 2.5 goals in 100% of cases. The strongest selection remains Over 1.5 goals, as even with a more cautious adjustment for the small sample size, the expected total of 3.20 goals gives this line by far the highest probability.

Puskás are in clearly better current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 2.0 goals per game, while Paksi have won only once and conceded an average of 2.6 goals. The strongest signal concerns the first half, as the hosts were leading at the break in 60% of their last five appearances, whereas the visitors did so on no occasion and conceded an average of 1.4 goals before half-time. Puskás also create more chances, recording an xG of 1.98 compared with the opponent’s 1.33, as well as 6.5 shots on target per match versus Paksi’s 4.0. After the break, the hosts retain the advantage, having averaged 2.0 goals in the second half in their home data, while Paksi failed to score after half-time and conceded 2.0 goals. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT scenario is Puskás leading at the break and securing the final victory (1/1), although the high finishing efficiency of both teams increases the risk of a consolation goal for the visitors.