Qabala vs Mil Mugan FK: match statistics
Statistical analysis points to very even chances for both teams, which speaks in favor of a draw. Qabala presents poor home form with a 71% loss rate, but has recently improved their disposition, winning 3 of their last 5 matches overall. Mil Mugan FK has a solid away record (44% wins and 44% clean sheets), yet their recent form is very poor – only 0.6 points per game in the last five meetings. A key factor is the hosts' xG advantage (1.24 vs 0.94), but Mil Mugan shows better efficiency (16% vs 9%). Taking into account the poor form of both squads in recent weeks and balanced offensive statistics, a draw appears to be the most probable result, although the hosts hold a slight advantage thanks to playing before their own crowd and better recent form.
Qabala vs Mil Mugan FK: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Qabala played Mil Mugan FK in Premyer Liqası (Azerbaijan). The match was played on 30 January 2026. Final score: 3:2.
Current form
Qabala: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Mil Mugan FK: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Qabala scores 0.94 and concedes 1.31 goals per match. Mil Mugan FK scores 0.94 and concedes 1.12. League average: 2.53 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Qabala 38%, Mil Mugan FK 29%. Over 2.5: Qabala 44%, Mil Mugan FK 35%. League level: BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Qabala has higher xG: 1.12 vs 0.92. Qabala: 9.3 shots per match, Mil Mugan FK: 7.2.
Match halves
Qabala: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.50. Mil Mugan FK: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 0.65.
Goals by minute
Qabala: 46-60 (5 goals). Mil Mugan FK: 76-90+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premyer Liqası: 2.53 goals per match, BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis points to very even chances for both teams, which speaks in favor of a draw. Qabala presents poor home form with a 71% loss rate, but has recently improved their disposition, winning 3 of their last 5 matches overall. Mil Mugan FK has a solid away record (44% wins and 44% clean sheets), yet their recent form is very poor – only 0.6 points per game in the last five meetings. A key factor is the hosts' xG advantage (1.24 vs 0.94), but Mil Mugan shows better efficiency (16% vs 9%). Taking into account the poor form of both squads in recent weeks and balanced offensive statistics, a draw appears to be the most probable result, although the hosts hold a slight advantage thanks to playing before their own crowd and better recent form.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Qabala | Mil Mugan FK | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Qabala is 200% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Qabala · 0.4 pts / match - Mil Mugan FK
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mil Mugan FK is 17% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.31 goals / match - Qabala · 1.12 goals / match - Mil Mugan FK
Qabala scores in 50% of matches (8 of 16 matches), while Mil Mugan FK keeps a clean sheet in 35% (6 of 17 matches).
Mil Mugan FK scores in 53% of matches (9 of 17 matches), while Qabala keeps a clean sheet in 13% (2 of 16 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Qabala
Over / Under - Mil Mugan FK
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Mil Mugan FK is 18% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Qabala · 1.18 pts / match - Mil Mugan FK
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Qabala - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 19%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Mil Mugan FK - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (5 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Qabala
Mil Mugan FK
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premyer Liqası).
Teams vs league
| Qabala | Liga | Mil Mugan FK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.25 | 2.53 | ▼ 2.06 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 38% | 46% | ▼ 29% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 44% | 48% | ▼ 35% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 13% | 31% | ▲ 35% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 69% | 66% | ▼ 47% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 69% | 76% | ▲ 82% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Qabala 0 - 1 - 0 Mil Mugan FK. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Qabala vs Mil Mugan FK?
The Premyer Liqası match finished Qabala 3:2 Mil Mugan FK. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Qabala vs Mil Mugan FK?
Qabala score 0.94 goals per game on average and Mil Mugan FK 0.94. The Premyer Liqası average is 2.53 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 38% of Qabala's matches and 29% of Mil Mugan FK's.
What form are Qabala and Mil Mugan FK in?
Over the last 5 games Qabala have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Mil Mugan FK 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Qabala vs Mil Mugan FK?
The statistical background for Qabala vs Mil Mugan FK — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.