Qarabağ vs Mil Mugan FK: match statistics
Qarabağ vs Mil Mugan FK: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Qarabağ play Mil Mugan FK in Premyer Liqası (Azerbaijan). The match date is 16 May 2026 at 15:00. Final score: 3:0.
Current form
Qarabağ: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Mil Mugan FK: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Qarabağ scores 2.15 and concedes 0.82 goals per match. Mil Mugan FK scores 0.70 and concedes 1.24. League average: 2.58 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Qarabağ 45%, Mil Mugan FK 24%. Over 2.5: Qarabağ 48%, Mil Mugan FK 30%. League level: BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Qarabağ has higher xG: 1.97 vs 1.00. Qarabağ: 15.5 shots per match, Mil Mugan FK: 8.3.
Match halves
Qarabağ: half-time lead 42%, second-half goals 1.27. Mil Mugan FK: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.39.
Goals by minute
Qarabağ: 76-90+ (20 goals). Mil Mugan FK: 76-90+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premyer Liqası: 2.58 goals per match, BTTS 46%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
2 H2H matches: 2-0-0. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 0%.
Match description
Qarabağ has a clear advantage in home metrics: at home they average 2.13 goals per game with an average xG of 2.11 and concede only 0.63 goals, while averaging 16.44 shots and 6.19 shots on target—significantly outperforming Mil Mugan (away averages: 8.19 shots, 2.94 on target and 0.94 goals). Additionally, the hosts dominate possession markedly—66% possession versus 39% for the visitors—and fail to score in only 25% of home matches, whereas Mil Mugan fail to score in 50% of away fixtures. Despite this, the visitors show a good points run: Mil Mugan have won 3 of their last 5 matches and average 2.0 points per game, while Qarabağ have 2 wins in 5 and average 1.4 points. The difference in quality of chances is pronounced—xG 2.11 for the hosts versus 1.01 for the visitors and a superiority in average shots (16.44 vs 8.19)—which suggests Qarabağ will create more opportunities and have a higher probability of winning. For these reasons I predict a home win, estimating probabilities of approximately 65% for Qarabağ, 20% for a draw and 15% for Mil Mugan.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Qarabağ | Mil Mugan FK | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Qarabağ is 100% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Qarabağ · 1 pts / match - Mil Mugan FK
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Qarabağ is 207% better for: goals scored per match.
2.15 goals / match - Qarabağ · 0.7 goals / match - Mil Mugan FK
Qarabağ is 51% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.82 goals / match - Qarabağ · 1.24 goals / match - Mil Mugan FK
Qarabağ scores in 82% of matches (27 of 33 matches), while Mil Mugan FK keeps a clean sheet in 42% (14 of 33 matches).
Mil Mugan FK scores in 45% of matches (15 of 33 matches), while Qarabağ keeps a clean sheet in 42% (14 of 33 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Qarabağ
Over / Under — Mil Mugan FK
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Qarabağ is 42% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.67 pts / match - Qarabağ · 1.18 pts / match - Mil Mugan FK
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Qarabağ - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 42% of matches and wins 64%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Mil Mugan FK - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 24%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 3.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 80% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (20 goli). Concedes most in 46-60 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +13 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Qarabağ
Mil Mugan FK
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premyer Liqası).
Teams vs league
| Qarabağ | Liga | Mil Mugan FK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.97 | 2.58 | ▼ 1.94 |
| Both teams scored | • 45% | 46% | ▼ 24% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 48% | 48% | ▼ 30% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 42% | 31% | ▲ 42% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 70% | 65% | ▼ 52% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 79% | 74% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Qarabağ 2 - 0 - 0 Mil Mugan FK. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Qarabağ vs Mil Mugan FK?
The Premyer Liqası match finished Qarabağ 3:0 Mil Mugan FK. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Qarabağ and Mil Mugan FK?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Qarabağ won 2, Mil Mugan FK won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Qarabağ vs Mil Mugan FK?
Qarabağ score 2.15 goals per game on average and Mil Mugan FK 0.70. The Premyer Liqası average is 2.58 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 45% of Qarabağ's matches and 24% of Mil Mugan FK's.
What form are Qarabağ and Mil Mugan FK in?
Over the last 5 games Qarabağ have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Mil Mugan FK 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Qarabağ vs Mil Mugan FK?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Qarabağ vs Mil Mugan FK: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.