Qingdao Jonoon vs Yunnan Yukun: match statistics

Yunnan Yukun are the favorites: they sit 4th in the table versus 14th-placed Qingdao and show significantly better form — in the last 5 matches they recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss (avg. 1.6 points per game), while Qingdao have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses (avg. 0.2 points). In their last 5 outings the visitors scored 8 and conceded 6 (1.6 scored, 1.2 conceded per game), whereas the hosts scored 7 and conceded 12 (1.4 scored, 2.4 conceded), which clearly favors Yunnan’s defensive profile. The visitors also generate more quality chances: away they average 4.88 shots on target and 48% possession versus Qingdao’s 3.86 shots on target and 43% possession in home games. xG is similar (1.29 for Qingdao vs 1.35 for Yunnan), and although the hosts have slightly better home conversion (15% vs 13%), their higher share of goalless games (29% vs 13%) and poor recent goal differential reduce their prospects for a positive result. Therefore I back the away win.

The BTTS scenario looks likely: Qingdao Jonoon has a seasonal BTTS rate of 57% and Yunnan Yukun 88%, yielding a simple average of 72.5% which exceeds the league baseline of 63%. Both teams score regularly — Qingdao averages 2.00 goals per game, Yunnan 1.63 — while also conceding frequently (Qingdao 1.71, Yunnan 1.50), which favors mutual scoring. In the last 5 matches Qingdao recorded BTTS in 80% and conceded an average of 2.4 goals, whereas Yunnan had BTTS in 60% and conceded 1.2 goals, so the home side’s defense is particularly vulnerable. xG also supports this picture: home xG 1.75 versus away xG against 1.63, with 5.43 and 4.88 shots on target respectively, and a high share of matches over 2.5 goals (86% for the home side and 75% for the away side). Given the low clean sheet percentages (29% and 13%) and the figures above, I recommend BTTS - Yes as the stronger signal.

Statistical analysis indicates strong goal potential: average xG is 1.75 for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.35 for Yunnan Yukun, while average xG conceded is 1.28 (Qingdao Jonoon) and 1.63 (Yunnan Yukun), translating to estimated expected goals of 1.69 for the home side and 1.32 for the away side, totaling 3.01 goals. Season average goals scored are 2.0 for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.63 for Yunnan Yukun, and the percentage of matches over 2.5 is 86% for the home team and 75% for the away team, which strengthens the signal for Over 2.5. Both teams frequently produce BTTS outcomes: BTTS is 57% for Qingdao Jonoon and 88% for Yunnan Yukun, and the combination of Over 2.5 with BTTS occurs in 56% of the home team’s matches and 75% of the away team’s matches. Additionally, Qingdao Jonoon averages 16 shots with 5.43 on target, and Yunnan Yukun 12.5 shots with 4.88 on target, with a conversion rate of 13% for both, confirming frequent chance conversion. Consequently, I recommend the over side on the 2.5 line (selection: over, line 2.5) as the strongest signal with a 76% probability for Over 2.5; I assess Over 1.5 at 92%, while Over 3.5 is left more conservatively with a 36% chance.

I back X/2 (draw at half-time, away win) because the visitors are in better form: the hosts have only 0.2 points per game in their last 5 with a 0-1-4 record, while the visitors average 1.6 points with a 2-2-1 record. The hosts were trailing at the break in 60% of their last five matches, whereas the visitors were not behind at half-time in any of those five (0.0%), which increases the likelihood of a draw or the visitors leading at the break. Although the hosts create more chances (xG 1.75 vs 1.35 and 16.0 shots vs 12.5), they are vulnerable after the break — conceding 5 goals in minutes 46–60 compared to 2 for the visitors — and the visitors produce stronger second-half performances (last5 second-half goals per game 1.6 vs 1.0 for the hosts). Additionally, the high share of matches with goals for the visitors (BTTS 88%) and the fact that first halves frequently yield a goal (over 0.5 HT: 86% for hosts vs 75% for visitors) support the scenario of a draw at half-time and an away win after 90 minutes.