Qingdao Youth Island vs Henan Jianye: match statistics

I back the home win (1) — Qingdao Youth Island enjoy a clear home advantage: they concede only 0.5 goals per home game and have 50% of home matches with a clean sheet, whereas Henan Jianye concede 1.33 goals on the road and have yet to record an away clean sheet. The hosts generate more high-quality chances: on average 5 shots on target and 12 shots per home game versus Henan’s 3.33 shots on target and 10.67 shots away, and the hosts’ home xG is 1.37 compared to the visitors’ 1.23. Over the last 5 matches both teams have scored 4 goals each, but Qingdao have conceded as many as 10 goals in that run versus Henan’s 6 conceded, indicating a risk of an open game and goals at both ends. Additionally, Henan lose 67% of their away matches and have failed to score in 33% of away fixtures, while Qingdao are unbeaten at home (0% losses: 50% wins, 50% draws), therefore the hosts have a higher probability of victory.

Both teams record a seasonal BTTS rate of 67% (league average 56%), and in the last 5 matches both sides also have BTTS at 60%, indicating a clear propensity for mutual scoring. Neither team has kept a clean sheet this season (0% clean sheets for home and away), and seasonally Qingdao concedes on average 1.0 goal versus Henan's 1.33, which further increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. xG comparison shows Qingdao with xG 1.59 while Henan allows xG 1.72, and Henan has xG 1.23 against Qingdao xG conceded 1.22 — both pairs of values are above 1.2 xG, meaning genuine goalscoring opportunities are being created. In the last 5 matches Qingdao conceded an average of 2.0 goals (10 conceded) and Henan 1.2 goals (6 conceded), and average shots on target 4.0 vs 3.33 and total shots 14.0 vs 10.67 demonstrate offensive activity from both sides. Considering the 67% BTTS for both teams, 0% clean sheets, xG above 1.2 and recent runs of conceded goals, I predict BTTS - Yes as more likely (78% vs 22%).

Expected goals based on xG are 1.66 for Qingdao and 1.23 for Henan, totaling 2.89 goals per match, which is close to the league average of 2.9. With a combined lambda of 2.89 the Poisson distribution yields roughly a 78% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), 55% for at least 3 goals (Over 2.5) and 33% for at least 4 goals (Over 3.5). Supporting stats: Qingdao generates xG 1.59 and averages 14 shots (4 on target), Henan has xG 1.23, concedes xG 1.72 on average and averages 10.67 shots (3.33 on target); both teams scored in 67% of matches. Season percentages show Over 1.5 occurred in 67% of matches for both teams, while Over 2.5 is historically 33% for Qingdao and 67% for Henan, creating moderate uncertainty around the 2.5 line. Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest line (side: Over, line 1.5) due to the high probabilistic signal (~78%) and consistency between xG and goal-related statistics.

At half-time the away side is more likely to be leading: Henan led at the break in 67% of matches (leadingAtHTPercentage_away=67) and averages 1.00 goals before half-time (scoredAVGHT_away=1.0) versus Qingdao’s 0.33 (scoredAVGHT_home=0.33). In second halves Qingdao consistently mount a turnaround – the home side scores on average 0.67 goals after the break (scored_2hg_avg_home=0.67) while the visitors record 0.0 (scored_2hg_avg_away=0.0), which increases the chance of a comeback. Additionally xG favors Qingdao 1.59 to 1.23 (xg_for_avg_home=1.59, xg_for_avg_away=1.23) and the hosts register more shots 14.0 versus 10.67 and more shots on target 4.0 versus 3.33, supporting a stronger second-half performance by the home team. Considering Qingdao’s higher season points per game 1.33 versus 1.00 (seasonPPG_home=1.33, seasonPPG_away=1.0) and the fact both teams have BTTS in 67% of matches, the most logical and strongest signal is Henan leading at the break with Qingdao winning at full-time (2/1), which I assign a 30% probability.