Queen of the South vs Kelty Hearts: match statistics
Queen of the South displays impressive home form with a 60% win rate and only 20% losses at their own stadium, underpinned by a +8 goal difference at home. The hosts have won 3 of their last 5 matches overall, scoring 9 goals, demonstrating strong offensive capabilities. Conversely, Kelty Hearts is in crisis—sitting in 10th place with just a 30% away win rate and a staggering 50% loss rate, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per away game. The xG statistics also favor the hosts (1.61 vs 0.95), while Kelty has averaged just 0.8 points per game in their last 5 outings. The disparity in quality, particularly given the home advantage and the visitors' poor form, makes a Queen of the South victory the most probable outcome.
Queen of the South vs Kelty Hearts: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Queen of the South played Kelty Hearts in League One (Scotland). The match was played on 10 January 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Queen of the South: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Kelty Hearts: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Queen of the South scores 1.35 and concedes 1.20 goals per match. Kelty Hearts scores 0.95 and concedes 2.15. League average: 2.54 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Queen of the South 35%, Kelty Hearts 55%. Over 2.5: Queen of the South 45%, Kelty Hearts 70%. League level: BTTS 42%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
Queen of the South has higher xG: 1.35 vs 0.96. Queen of the South: 11.1 shots per match, Kelty Hearts: 6.8.
Match halves
Queen of the South: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 0.80. Kelty Hearts: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.40.
Goals by minute
Queen of the South: 46-60 (7 goals). Kelty Hearts: 16-30 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
League One: 2.54 goals per match, BTTS 42%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-0. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Queen of the South displays impressive home form with a 60% win rate and only 20% losses at their own stadium, underpinned by a +8 goal difference at home. The hosts have won 3 of their last 5 matches overall, scoring 9 goals, demonstrating strong offensive capabilities. Conversely, Kelty Hearts is in crisis—sitting in 10th place with just a 30% away win rate and a staggering 50% loss rate, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per away game. The xG statistics also favor the hosts (1.61 vs 0.95), while Kelty has averaged just 0.8 points per game in their last 5 outings. The disparity in quality, particularly given the home advantage and the visitors' poor form, makes a Queen of the South victory the most probable outcome.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Queen of the South | Kelty Hearts | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 50% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Queen of the South is 150% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Queen of the South · 0.8 pts / match - Kelty Hearts
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Queen of the South is 42% better for: goals scored per match.
1.35 goals / match - Queen of the South · 0.95 goals / match - Kelty Hearts
Queen of the South is 79% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.2 goals / match - Queen of the South · 2.15 goals / match - Kelty Hearts
Queen of the South scores in 70% of matches (14 of 20 matches), while Kelty Hearts keeps a clean sheet in 10% (2 of 20 matches).
Kelty Hearts scores in 65% of matches (13 of 20 matches), while Queen of the South keeps a clean sheet in 40% (8 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Queen of the South
Over / Under - Kelty Hearts
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Queen of the South is 43% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.5 pts / match - Queen of the South · 1.05 pts / match - Kelty Hearts
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Queen of the South - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 45%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Kelty Hearts - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 15%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (5 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Queen of the South
Kelty Hearts
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (League One).
Teams vs league
| Queen of the South | Liga | Kelty Hearts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.55 | 2.54 | ▲ 3.10 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 35% | 42% | ▲ 55% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 45% | 51% | ▲ 70% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 40% | 32% | ▼ 10% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 75% | 72% | ▲ 90% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 95% | 80% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Queen of the South 1 - 1 - 0 Kelty Hearts. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Queen of the South vs Kelty Hearts?
The League One match finished Queen of the South 3:1 Kelty Hearts. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Queen of the South and Kelty Hearts?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Queen of the South won 1, Kelty Hearts won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Queen of the South vs Kelty Hearts?
Queen of the South score 1.35 goals per game on average and Kelty Hearts 0.95. The League One average is 2.54 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 35% of Queen of the South's matches and 55% of Kelty Hearts's.
What form are Queen of the South and Kelty Hearts in?
Over the last 5 games Queen of the South have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Kelty Hearts 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Queen of the South vs Kelty Hearts?
The statistical background for Queen of the South vs Kelty Hearts — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.