Queen's Park vs Stenhousemuir: match statistics

Stenhousemuir sit higher in the table, 3rd compared with Queen's Park in 10th, and remain unbeaten in their last 5 matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws. The hosts have lost both of their league matches so far, while at home they have conceded an average of 2 goals per game and scored just 1. Nevertheless, the visitors’ away figures do not justify a confident prediction of their victory: they have drawn 100% of their matches on the road, and their average xG is only 0.80. Queen's Park create slightly more quality chances at home, with an average xG of 1.05, while Stenhousemuir allow opponents an xG of 2.21. Both teams have scored in every match played in their respective conditions, but the visitors’ limited finishing efficiency and draw-heavy trend point towards a share of the points.

The signal for both teams to score is moderately positive, as Queen’s Park recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Stenhousemuir. During this period, the hosts averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while the visitors scored 1.2 goals per match, giving them a realistic route to finding the net. Queen’s Park should also create chances against the opposition defence: Stenhousemuir allow an average xG of 2.21, while the hosts generate an xG of 1.36. This is not a particularly strong pick, as only 30% of matches in the league have featured BTTS, and the visitors conceded just 0.6 goals on average across their last five games. However, the attacking output and the hosts’ recent defensive record marginally favour the BTTS - Yes scenario.

Seasonal data points to a cautious goals profile: both teams had 100% of their matches finish below 2.5 and below 3.5 goals, while the league-wide average is just 1.6 goals. Stenhousemuir score an average of 1.0 goals, with an xG of 0.80 and just 5 shots per match, which limits their contribution to a high-scoring game. Queen's Park have greater attacking potential, averaging 2.0 goals, while their opponents allow an xG of 2.21; however, the hosts’ current five-match xG average is only 1.33. In their last five matches, Stenhousemuir conceded just 0.6 goals per game, while only 20% of their matches went over 2.5 goals. The projected 2.20 goals leaves a clear margin below the 3.5 line, making Under 3.5 the safest pick.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Queen’s Park victory at full-time, as both teams were level at the break in 100% of the available matches in the current sample. The hosts improve markedly after the interval: they average 2.0 goals in the second half, concede none, and won the second half in 100% of these matches. Stenhousemuir average no goals after half-time, while in their last five appearances they scored just 0.6 goals in the second halves, failing to score in 60% of those matches. Queen’s Park’s advantage is also evident in their attacking potential: their xG stands at 1.36 compared with 0.80 for their opponents, while the opposition allows an average xG of 2.21. Although Stenhousemuir’s recent form has been stable, with 2 wins and 3 draws, the hosts have stronger conditions to settle an evenly matched first half after the break.