Querétaro vs Cruz Azul: match statistics

Cruz Azul is the favorite based on seasonal metrics: they have 19 wins and 63 goals scored versus Querétaro's 9 wins and 33 goals. Away, Cruz Azul averages 1.56 goals with an xG of 1.64 and generates 15.11 shots, including 5.39 on target; Querétaro at home records 1.38 goals, xG 1.20, 11.38 shots and 3.75 shots on target, indicating an advantage for the visitors in chance creation. However, recent form favors the hosts — Cruz Azul in their last five matches have 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, averaging 0.6 points per game, while Querétaro in the same period have 2 wins and 3 draws, averaging 1.8 points per game. Defenses are similar in goals conceded (1.19 for Querétaro at home vs 1.17 for Cruz Azul away), but Querétaro concedes more quality chances by xG against (1.54 vs 1.27). Considering Cruz Azul's seasonal offensive edge (more shots, higher xG and 63 vs 33 goals), I project an away win, although Cruz Azul's high draw rate on the road (50% draws) increases the likelihood of a split result.

Both teams have a high rate of matches with both sides scoring: Querétaro 67% and Cruz Azul 72%, noticeably above the league level of 59%. This season Querétaro averages 1.94 goals scored and concedes 1.06, while Cruz Azul scores 1.56 and concedes 1.17, indicating both sides regularly both score and concede. xG suggests Querétaro generates 2.10 xG versus 0.93 xG against, and Cruz Azul 1.64 xG versus 1.27 xG against; the home side also registers more shots (19.72 vs 15.11) and shots on target (6.72 vs 5.39), so there is real attacking pressure on both goals. In the last 5 matches BTTS is 60% for Querétaro and 80% for Cruz Azul, while the percentage of clean sheets is only 33% and 22% — this confirms both teams’ tendency to concede. Considering these numbers, I assess the probability of BTTS at 78% versus 22% and recommend a "BTTS - Yes" bet, because the seasonal and recent BTTS metrics (67%/72% and 60%/80%) along with high xG and shot statistics strongly support both teams scoring.

Based on xG: the home side have xG 2.10 while average xG against them is 1.27, yielding about 1.69 expected goals for the home team; the visitors have xG 1.64 against an xG conceded of 0.93, yielding about 1.28 expected goals for the away team; total ≈2.97 goals. Seasonal metrics confirm a goal-prone trend: Querétaro have 83% of matches over 1.5 goals, Cruz Azul 89%, and the league averages 2.9 goals per match. In 67% of home matches and 72% of away matches both teams score, and hosts average 19.72 shots and 6.72 shots on target with a 10% conversion, which supports a scenario of at least two goals. A Poisson model with combined λ=2.97 yields probabilities of over 1.5 ≈80%, over 2.5 ≈57% and over 3.5 ≈35%. Considering the strongest signal (high over-1.5 percentages: 83% and 89% and the model’s 80%), I recommend backing Over 1.5.

Querétaro has a clear home advantage: xG 2.10 versus Cruz Azul’s 1.64, an average of 19.72 shots taken versus 15.11 and more points per home match (2.22 vs 1.67), which increases the hosts’ chances of winning. At half-time the score is most often level (hosts recorded HT draws in 50% of matches, visitors in 39%, average around 45% HT draws), yet hosts more frequently hold a lead at the break (hosts led at HT in 39% of their matches vs 33% for visitors, average about 34% home leads). Querétaro scores on average 0.94 goals by half-time versus Cruz Azul’s 0.61 and concedes fewer in the second half (0.44 vs 0.67), so taking a lead before the break has a high likelihood of translating into a full-time victory. Considering the xG advantage and stronger second-half metrics (points in second halves 1.89 vs 1.61), the strongest signal is a home lead at half-time and a win after the match (HT/FT 1/1).