Querétaro vs Necaxa: match statistics

I predict a draw (X). Both teams have similar xG values: Querétaro at home has xG for 1.15 and xG against 1.58, while Necaxa away has xG for 1.42 and xG against 1.70, translating to roughly 1–1.5 expected goals for each side. Necaxa scored 6 goals in their last 5 matches and average 1.4 points per game, creating more chances (13 shots and 4.47 on target on average) than the hosts (10.93 shots and 3.6 on target). On the other hand, Querétaro concede only 1.2 goals per game at home and have a 33% clean sheet rate, whereas Necaxa concede 2.2 goals away and have only a 7% clean sheet rate, which undermines their win probability. Considering the hosts’ poor finishing in the last 5 matches (3 goals) and the visitors’ defensive vulnerability, a draw with a moderate number of goals is the most likely outcome.

Seasonal statistics favor a Both Teams To Score scenario: Necaxa has BTTS in 73% of matches this season, concedes an average of 2.2 goals per match and keeps a clean sheet in only 7% of games. Querétaro has a seasonal BTTS rate of 47%, concedes 1.07 goals per match and has 13% clean sheets, while its xG_for is 1.68 and Necaxa’s defense allows xG of 1.70, suggesting chances at both ends. Shot data also supports goals: Querétaro averages 16.67 shots (4.87 on target), Necaxa 13.0 shots (4.47 on target) with conversion rates of 8% and 10% respectively. Counter signals are the last 5 matches, where BTTS occurred in only 40% of games for both teams and average goals in that period are 0.6 (Querétaro) and 1.2 (Necaxa), slightly lowering the projected probability. However, considering Necaxa’s high seasonal BTTS rate (73%), low clean sheet percentages (13% and 7%) and the league BTTS level of 57%, I predict BTTS - Yes with a probability of 70%.

xG for the home side is 1.68 vs 1.42 for the away; averaging with xG against yields 1.69 for Querétaro and 1.37 for Necaxa, totaling ~3.06 expected goals. Necaxa have 73% of away matches Over 2.5 goals, while Querétaro have 40% at home, which—combined with the league average of 2.9 goals—increases the probability of Over 2.5. Shot metrics support this: Querétaro average 16.67 shots and 4.87 SOT with an 8% conversion (~1.33 goals), Necaxa 13 shots and 4.47 SOT with a 10% conversion (~1.30 goals). Additionally, Necaxa record 73% BTTS on the road, and Querétaro concede more than 0.5 goals in 87% of home matches, so both teams frequently score and concede; on this basis the strongest signal is Over 2.5 (estimated probability ~70%).

Querétaro holds a clear edge in season data: home xG is 1.68 versus away xG 1.42, and the hosts average 1.4 points per home match versus Necaxa’s 0.8 points per away match. The hosts led at the break in 5 matches (33%) compared to 2 instances (13%) for the visitors, and Necaxa concedes an average of 1.27 goals by half-time and 2.2 goals per match, which favors Querétaro holding a lead at Half-Time. However, note the visitors’ second-half strength: their goals-per-second-half is 1.73 versus the hosts’ 1.07, and 87% of Necaxa’s matches feature at least 0.5 goals after the break, so turnarounds are possible. Additionally, the hosts have a 40% win rate this season versus 20% for Necaxa and finish matches with a victory in 40% of cases versus 27% for the visitors, so the most likely and strongest signal is a home lead and home win (1/1). I therefore assign a 34% probability to 1/1, while also allocating notable weight to draw and comeback scenarios (1/X 14%, X/2 8%) due to Necaxa’s high second-half efficiency in Half-Time/Full-Time contexts.