Querétaro vs Toluca: match statistics
Querétaro vs Toluca: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Querétaro played Toluca in Liga MX (Mexico). The match was played on 22 August 2026. Venue: Estadio La Corregidora. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Querétaro: 2-1-1, 1.75 points/match. Toluca: 2-1-1, 1.75 points/match.
Goal statistics
Querétaro scores 1.25 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Toluca scores 1.50 and concedes 0.75. League average: 2.82 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Querétaro 50%, Toluca 50%. Over 2.5: Querétaro 50%, Toluca 50%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 58%.
xG, shots and style
Toluca has higher xG: 1.89 vs 1.37. Querétaro: 13.0 shots per match, Toluca: 17.0.
Match halves
Querétaro: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.75. Toluca: half-time lead 75%, second-half goals 0.50.
Goals by minute
Querétaro: 76-90+ (2 goals). Toluca: 31-45+ (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga MX: 2.82 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 58%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Toluca are showing clearly better current form: they have collected 10 points from their last five matches, with 3 wins, a draw and a defeat, while Querétaro have managed only 5 points. The visitors have scored 9 goals and conceded just 3 during this period, whereas the hosts have scored 4 and conceded as many as 8. Away from home, Toluca have not lost a single match, keeping a clean sheet in 100% of their games and allowing opponents an xG of 1.47. Querétaro do average 1.5 goals at home, but have failed to keep a single clean sheet, while their defence allows opponents an xG of 2.02. Toluca’s advantage in possession, 59% compared to 34%, along with their higher number of shots on target per match, 5.5 to 4, further supports the case for an away win, although a draw remains a realistic outcome given their 50% draw rate away from home.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The BTTS - No pick is primarily supported by Toluca’s highly solid defence: in the available away data, they have not conceded a goal, kept a 100% clean-sheet record and allowed opponents an xG of just 1.47. Querétaro have scored only 0.8 goals per match across their last 5 games, while in as many as 60% of those matches at least one team failed to score. Toluca are in significantly better offensive form, averaging 1.8 goals over their last five matches with an xG of 2.36, while the hosts have conceded 1.6 goals and recorded an xG against of 1.71 during that period. Although Querétaro average 21.5 shots at home and have an xG of 2.32, the clash between this attack and the visitors’ defence, combined with the teams’ low 40% BTTS rate across their last five matches, slightly favours the scenario in which the hosts fail to score.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest signal points to at least two goals, as the league average is 2.79 goals and the teams’ projected combined total is 2.68. Toluca have scored 9 goals in their last five matches, averaging 1.8 per game, with a very high average xG of 2.36. Querétaro conceded 1.6 goals per game during this period and allowed opponents an xG of 1.71, which strengthens the prospects of an away goal. However, the home side create plenty of chances at home, averaging 2.32 xG and 6.0 shots on target per game, although their goalscoring form over the last five games stands at just 0.8 goals. Caution is advised with Over 2.5 due to Toluca’s defensive record, having conceded only 3 goals in their last five matches; therefore, Over 1.5 is clearly the safer choice.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Toluca are clearly in better current form: they have won 60% of their last five matches, scoring an average of 1.8 goals and conceding only 0.6, while Querétaro have scored 0.8 goals and allowed opponents to score 1.6. The visitors have not lost any of their last five matches at half-time and were leading at the break in 60% of them; Querétaro were ahead after 45 minutes in only 40% of their matches. A draw at half-time is a realistic outcome, as both teams were level at the break in 40% of their recent matches, with the average number of first-half goals standing at 1.2 and 1.4 respectively. After the interval, Toluca’s advantage increases: they score an average of 0.8 goals while conceding just 0.2, whereas the hosts score only 0.2 and concede 1.0. Therefore, the most likely outcome is an even first half followed by Toluca turning the game in their favour after the break, corresponding to the X/2 HT/FT scenario.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Querétaro | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Toluca is 20% better for: goals scored per match.
1.25 goals / match - Querétaro · 1.5 goals / match - Toluca
Toluca is 33% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - Querétaro · 0.75 goals / match - Toluca
Querétaro scores in 50% of matches (2 of 4 matches), while Toluca keeps a clean sheet in 50% (2 of 4 matches).
Toluca scores in 75% of matches (3 of 4 matches), while Querétaro keeps a clean sheet in 25% (1 of 4 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Querétaro
Over / Under - Toluca
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Toluca is 100% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.25 pts / match - Querétaro · 2.5 pts / match - Toluca
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Querétaro - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Toluca - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 75% of matches and wins 50%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| 1 goal | 50% | 75% |
| 2 goals | 25% | 50% |
| 3 goals | 25% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 50% | 50% |
| No goal | 75% | 50% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.50 | 1.75 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Average goals in match | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 75% | 75% |
| 2 goals | 25% | 25% |
| 3 goals | 25% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 75% | 75% |
| No goal | 25% | 50% |
| Goal difference | +3 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (2 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Querétaro
Toluca
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga MX).
Teams vs league
| Querétaro | Liga | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.25 | 2.82 | ▼ 2.25 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 55% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 58% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | • 25% | 26% | ▲ 50% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 68% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 75% | 87% | ▼ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Querétaro 1 - 0 - 1 Toluca. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Querétaro vs Toluca?
The Liga MX match finished Querétaro 1:2 Toluca. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Querétaro and Toluca?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Querétaro won 1, Toluca won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Querétaro vs Toluca?
Querétaro score 1.25 goals per game on average and Toluca 1.50. The Liga MX average is 2.82 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 58% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Querétaro's matches and 50% of Toluca's.
What form are Querétaro and Toluca in?
Over the last 5 games Querétaro have a 2-1-1 record (1.75 points per game) and Toluca 2-1-1 (1.75 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Querétaro vs Toluca?
The statistical background for Querétaro vs Toluca — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.